IDRISS DÉBY, the president of Chad who has been propped up by France for nearly two decades, was weakened by the rebel offensive that delayed the deployment of European troops, Gen Patrick Nash, the Irish commander of EUfor, said yesterday.
"The question of weakening is there have been two major battles and the rebels were able to withdraw without being destroyed," Gen Nash said.
French experts say the question is not if but when the rebels will attack again, and a EUfor source said they are likely to move before the rainy season starts in late May.
"The rebels are there and available again and if they get the necessary support they can certainly come again," Gen Nash said.
At his first EUfor briefing for French media, Gen Nash announced that EUfor reached its initial operating capacity on March 15th, which means its mandate will expire on March 14th, 2009. There are 1,759 EUfor troops from 11 countries in Chad, including 50 Irish Rangers. Before summer this will rise to 4,000 troops from 17 countries.
Some 350 more Irish troops will deployed to Goz Beida, in southern Chad, between mid-April and late May. This area will be worst affected by rain. Col Cornelius McNamara, the Deputy Assistant Chief of Staff for Operations, showed images of military vehicles and planes mired in mud.
The Irish area is inhabited by more internally displaced persons (IDPs) than refugees from neighbouring Darfur. They are particularly vulnerable to rebel attacks.
Gen Nash said EUfor would not intervene if rebels attack Chadian troops. "If there is an atrocity committed on an IDP or refugee camp, it is our business, but not otherwise. And we do not cross the border. Never. We do not cross the Sudanese border ... We should prevent the atrocity in the first instance. But if there is an atrocity on misfortunate innocent people and there are people who are responsible and we have substantial evidence that these are the people, we can deal with those people."
Last week, Gen Nash attended the funeral of Gilles Paulin, the first EUfor casualty. Paulin was killed inside Sudan. Gen Nash said he believed the Frenchman wandered into Sudan by mistake, but French sources speculate he was gathering intelligence. EUfor's rules of engagement specify that troops may not approach within 5km of the Sudanese border.
EUfor briefers yesterday referred to the attack which nearly overthrew President Déby as the "January 28th incident". The fighting claimed several hundred lives and forced thousands to flee.
The winter battle starkly raised the question of EUfor's independence and neutrality. Asked whether EUfor would share intelligence with "Opération Épervier", the French force that has been in Chad for 22 years, Gen Nash said that sharing intelligence among EU countries was a security necessity and that "the information flow between French agencies is a matter for the French". The French chief of staff, Gen Jean-Louis Georgelin, has put his substantial air assets in Chad at the "instant" disposal of EUfor.
Mr Déby would not have survived the rebellion without French support. As Le Monde newspaper reported, French troops repeatedly opened fire to defend the airport in the capital N'Djamena. At least one French Sagaie tank fired shells at rebels and a French transport aircraft ferried shells from Tripoli for the Chadian army.
While expressing his immense gratitude for French assistance, Gen Nash nonetheless insisted that EUfor will not become involved in Chad's internal problems. The first EUfor troops in N'Djamena have left the French camp there for their own Camp Europa. At the moment, force headquarters in Abeche are within the French Camp Crocci, because EUfor could not build its hospital in an unprotected area.