YESTERDAY EVENING, for the first time, the secular alliance led by former Iraqi premier Iyad Allawi secured a slender lead over the Shia sectarian bloc headed by incumbent Nuri al-Maliki, who was trailing in the count by 9,000 votes.
Analysts predicted Mr Allawi’s position could strengthen when overseas votes are factored into the total. But nothing is certain as the balance of advantage could shift back and forth before the final result is declared.
Earlier in the day Iran had congratulated Iraqis on their March 7th election as blocs allied to Tehran appeared to be ahead in the tight race. With 66 per cent of votes counted, Mr Maliki’s moderate sectarian Shia State of Law bloc had, according to al-Sumaria, an Iraqi television station, received 78 seats in the new 325-member assembly. Mr Allawi’s secular nationalist Iraqiya coalition had won 69 seats and the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), a coalition of Shia fundamentalist parties, 59.
The Kurdistan bloc, comprised of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Kurdish Democratic Party, had secured 41 seats. The allocation of seats is, however, certain to change with the release of fresh returns.
Shia Tehran is betting on Mr Maliki to regain and hold the lead. Iran has close relations with Mr Maliki, the INA and the Kurds.
Ahead of the election, Mr Allawi, who is highly critical of Iran’s interference in Iraq’s affairs, made a tour of Sunni Arab capitals to cultivate good relations and garner financial support to offset somewhat the large sums Iran is believed to have invested in the campaigns of its allies.
Since no party or bloc can win a majority because of the proportional system introduced ahead of this election, the grouping gaining a plurality will be charged with forming a coalition.
Unless Mr Allawi secures a considerable number of votes more than Mr Maliki, the result is certain to be contested. Mr Maliki could attempt to disqualify winners on Mr Allawi’s slate on the grounds that they have ties to the outlawed Baath party toppled in 2003 by the US.
More than 500 candidates were banned ahead of the vote. Iran could also be expected to try to rally the sectarian Shia parties that have dominated Iraq during the past seven years to reject Mr Allawi’s bid for the premiership.
If Mr Allawi, a secular Arab nationalist Shia, emerges as the winner, he could have considerable difficulty forming a cabinet. Mr Maliki’s faction would be unlikely to join a government headed by him. The Sadrists, the INA’s leading vote-getters, would not want to enter a secular coalition. The Kurds would be leery of Mr Allawi because he flatly rejects their demand for a referendum to determine the status of the oil-rich province of Tamim and its capital Kirkuk.
The Kurds seek to annex this area to their autonomous region in spite of fierce opposition from local Arab and Turkoman communities and Arabs in the rest of Iraq.
Yesterday, as the election results were leaked by the commission, eight Iraqis were killed and 11 wounded in the town of Musayyab, 60 kilometres south of Baghdad.
This was the second attack since multiple bombs killed 38 civilians on polling day.
