SIX GLOBAL POWERS will launch a new diplomatic push after the US elections aimed at defusing the Iranian nuclear crisis in the next few months and avoiding the eruption of a new Middle East conflict next year.
A “reformulated” proposal will offer limited relief from existing sanctions and other incentives for Iran to limit the level of enrichment of its uranium stockpile.
A new attempt will be made to sequence the steps required to reach a deal to overcome the mutual distrust that helped sink previous rounds of negotiations, where each side appeared to wait for the other to make the first major concession.
“We recognise that the Iranians need something more with which they can sell a deal at home, and we will expect real change on the other side. It is about getting the sequencing right. That is what this next round will be about,” a European official said.
Another western diplomat said: “It shouldn’t expect the [the six-power group] to blink first, but if it’s ready to take genuine steps we’re ready to respond. This could include sanctions relief but only in return for the right moves by Iran. Sanctions are biting in Tehran and we’re not going to lift them without making solid progress on our concerns.”
If the step-by-step approach fails there could be an attempt to “go big” with an ambitious, comprehensive settlement that would allow Iran to continue producing uranium at low levels (under 5 per cent) of enrichment but under stricter international monitoring and controls.
“Currently we are stalled because Iran is asking too much and offering nothing in return. One way forward might be for Iran to offer much more and make an accordingly bigger demand at the same time,” the western diplomat said.
Officials involved in the nuclear talks believe there is a window of opportunity for diplomacy between the US elections on November 6th and next spring.
That scenario envisages a resumption of high-level talks between the group of six powers (the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia and China) with the Iranian chief negotiator, Saeed Jalili, in that window, either in late November or December.
Much will hinge on the outcome of next month’s presidential elections. The plan assumes that either Barack Obama wins a second term, or that Mitt Romney wins but allows the diplomatic initiative to go forward unchanged. If a victorious Romney insists on a full policy review after taking office, the nuclear diplomacy could be derailed for months.– (Guardian service)