Iran's conservative clerics yesterday admitted defeat in their struggle against liberalisation by conceding a quorum for the new reformist-controlled parliament. After two weeks of counting and consideration, the Council of Guardians validated partial results from the May 5th second round in the parliamentary poll, ensuring the formation of the new majlis on May 27th. Until these results were released, commentators had voiced concern that the council would find pretexts to prevent the majlis from sitting on schedule or scrap the election. The council could not resist the popular demand to allow the majlis to sit since voters gave reformists landslide victories in both rounds.
However, the council was told by the Supreme Guide, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to discontinue counting in disputed constituencies in the Tehran race. His aim was to save face for the conservatives, who have constituted the majority in parliament since the Islamic Republic was founded in 1979. Initial counting gave 29 of 30 seats in Tehran to reformists, deeply humiliating the conservatives. It is expected that the majority of the seats will go to the reformists.
The two camps are not simply battling for power but over the very essence of "Islamic" governance in Iran. The council's capitulation over the run-off result amounted to a major victory for the reformists in this protracted struggle.
The reforms of the liberal President, Mr Muhammad Khatami, if implemented, will gradually marginalise the conservative "Islamic" bodies which have dominated the state for two decades. The main instrument for accomplishing this task is the "rule of law". Mr Khatami seeks to enact a legal code applicable to all Iranians and to remove the judiciary from the control of conservative clerics. He also intends to assume supervision of the armed forces and the official media, which are now under the clerics. The President's five-year plan (2000-2004) calls for the privatisation of communications, post, railways and the tobacco industry, established as state monopolies 60 years ago by the Pahlevi dynasty and taken over by the clerics.
The plan also requires powerful conservative-run foundations, which account for 25 per cent of economic activity, to accept auditors.
These measures are considered first steps in the "total restructuring" of the economy. The plan, which projects an annual growth rate of 6 per cent rather than the 3.2 per cent of previous plans, grants guarantees for foreign investors so Iran can secure funding for the development of its oil and gas fields.
"Total restructuring" will mean an end to state involvement in the economy, revision of the tax system, incentives for the non-oil sector and replacement of subsidies with welfare for the deprived. Mr Khatami cannot afford to fail. More than half Iran's 65 million citizens are under the age of 20. The jobless rate is 30 per cent. Inflation is officially put at 30 per cent but is higher. The young demand employment and a living wage. With more than a million at university, the number of educated unemployed is soaring and graduates are emigrating.
But a reformist majlis majority does not mean automatic adoption of Mr Khatami's programme. There are 18 reformist factions, which have differing and diverging agendas. Leftists oppose privatisation, while moderates oppose a minimum wage and the dole. The right-wing opposition supports privatisation but rejects tax, banking and tariff reform. Consequently, each measure may have to pass on its own and adoption could depend on factional horse-trading, weakening the thrust of reform and slowing the process of change.
However, the reformists have a period of grace given that the price of oil has doubled since the reform plan was drafted, boosting revenue which can be used to finance projects designed to earn popular approval and support.