The IRA has placed a halt on acts of weapons decommissioning until political talks take place after the Northern Assembly elections next month, the Government believes.
In its statement yesterday, the IRA said the political sequencing promised last week had been halted by the Ulster Unionist leader, Mr David Trimble, "without a credible explanation".
In line with normal practice, the Government refused to react to the IRA's declaration, though the statement was analysed by the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern.
"We will carry on from where we left off once the election is over," a Government spokesman told The Irish Times last night, though some quarters pointed out that the IRA had not broken off contact with the decommissioning body.
Government sources expressed little surprise with the tone of the statement, and said the IRA had done little to exacerbate difficulties.
The IRA was "clearly annoyed" at the UUP leader's reaction, and some members have compared it to the one offered by Mr Trimble after the second act of decommissioning.
"It is hard to know as to whether they have pulled the plug on decommissioning again until we are at a point where we are going to see political progress again, though it seems that way," said one source.
The difficulties that emerged last Tuesday between Sinn Féin and the Ulster Unionists are now being blamed by the Government "on misunderstandings" between the parties rather than bad faith.
The Government did not "have full knowledge" of the talks between the Sinn Féin president, Mr Gerry Adams, and the UUP leader, Mr Trimble, in the weeks running up to the Hillsborough meeting last week.
"It has been said in Northern Ireland that republicans are able to read between the lines, but unionists are only able to read the lines as they are printed. It looks like that happened again," said the source.
However, Government sources believe that Mr Trimble kept many details of those discussions "to himself, and for very good reason, because they would have leaked out otherwise".
His decision, however, meant that other senior UUP figures were "spooked" when the head of the International Independent Decommissioning Body, Gen John de Chastelain, issued his statement about the IRA's latest decommissioning.
"The UUP party had the time to think it over, and it was very easily spooked when the Northern media and others said: 'There isn't much in this.' That fed into the unionists' sense of insecurity," The Irish Times was told.
The hopes for progress in the peace process after the November 26th Assembly election now depend upon the UUP's ability to stave off the Democratic Unionist Party.
However, the Government fears that the failure to produce a stable Assembly and Northern Ireland Executive have increasingly disillusioned unionists.
"The process has taken too long to roll out and the public has lost interest it. But people are happy enough to live without the full roll-out as long as the violence stays off the agenda," one source told The Irish Times.
Nevertheless, the Government does not accept fears that the UUP vote could implode since it believes that the proportional representation system used in the elections could help the UUP to retain much of its share.
"The bigger parties will be more used to proportional representation the next time. They are likely to manage their vote better. They will be much cleverer. That could mean a loss of just one or two seats for the UUP," the source said.
"But there is little doubt that the make-up of the UUP Assembly party will be different, whatever happens with its vote. There will be more naysayers and dissenters in it."
