IRA must get rid of arms now, says poll

The message from the Northern Ireland public is the same as that from the Irish, British and US Governments over the last few…

The message from the Northern Ireland public is the same as that from the Irish, British and US Governments over the last few days: the restoration of the offer to put IRA arms beyond use in line with the method agreed with the de Chastelain Commission is not enough. The process of actually putting weapons beyond use must now begin.

The majority in favour of decommissioning is in itself unremarkable: For a long time now it has been clear that there was overwhelming support in Ireland, north and south, for the process to begin of putting weapons beyond use.

However, the support for this even among Sinn Fein supporters is noteworthy. Some 46 per cent of their voters agree decommissioning should start now. However the very large minority of its supporters - 44 per cent - who believe the IRA should not begin to put its weapons beyond use will remain of concern to the Republican leadership. It shows that those within the IRA who resist the idea of decommissioning in present circumstances have the support of almost half of the community that supports the Republican Movement.

The second element of the public mood in Northern Ireland captured by the poll is the extent of unionist and loyalist disillusionment with the Belfast Agreement and the manner of its implementation.

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The poll confirms a significant fall in support for the Belfast Agreement within the unionist and loyalist community since the 1998 referendum, while showing that support among nationalist voters has remained absolutely solid.

Overall, 64 per cent of voters said they voted for the Belfast Agreement in 1998, 22 per cent said they voted against with 14 per cent saying they did not vote or can't remember.

(This is a modest overstatement of the actual referendum result in which 57.7 per cent of the electorate voted yes, 23.4 per cent voted no and 18.9 per cent did not vote.)

However just 52 per cent say they would vote for it now, while 31 per cent say they would vote against it. Those who say they would not vote or expressed no opinion stand at 17 per cent.

The fall in support is accounted for entirely by disillusionment among unionists and loyalists. Among unionists, stated support for the pact has slumped from 45 per cent to just 25 per cent, while backing from supporters of the fringe loyalist parties is down from 63 per cent to 42 per cent.

There is now a substantial unionist majority of 55 per cent to 25 per cent against the agreement, the poll shows. Interestingly, the margin is much closer among those supporting the fringe loyalist parties with 48 per cent against and 42 per cent in favour.

Unionist voters, many of whom are deeply unhappy about the reform of the RUC, dispute that police reform is an essential part of the agreement at all. While a police reform process was central to the deal signed on Good Friday, 1998, just 38 per cent of unionist voters agree that it is essential to the pact, while 53 per cent maintain that it is not.

It is noteworthy too that more unionists oppose Catholics joining the new Police Service of Northern Ireland than do SDLP voters. Some 14 per cent of unionist voters and 16 per cent who support the loyalist parties says Catholics should not join, while just 6 per cent say they should not.

There is also a sober - and largely negative - public assessment of the benefits brought by the agreement so far in terms of improved community relations. Just 16 per cent believe relations between nationalists and unionists have improved since the agreement was signed in 1988. Some 51 per cent say relations have not improved with 29 per cent believing they have stayed the same.

SDLP voters are most likely to see improved relations with 24 per cent saying things have improved. However, just 15 per cent of loyalist voters, 14 per cent of unionists and only seven per cent of Sinn Fein voters say relations between unionists and nationalists have improved.

The young are also more positive about improved community relations with 20 per cent of the 18 - 24 age group believing things have changed for the better. That figure decreases steadily through older age cohorts and drops to just 10 per cent among those over 65.

The SDLP's decision to endorse the new policing arrangements and to work them is approved overwhelmingly by their voters with 88 per cent thinking Catholics should now join the police service. Sinn Fein, however, also receives majority backing from its supporters for its refusal to endorse the new arrangements. Some 48 per cent of Sinn Fein voters believe Catholics should not join the new police service and 39 per cent saying they should.

The poll suggests a substantial drop in Sinn Fein support in the North. However support for that party and the DUP is traditionally understated in opinion polls. Asked who they would vote for in an Assembly election, the state of the parties is Ulster Unionist Party - 25 per cent, down 1.7 points on the UK 2001 General Election; SDLP - 23 per cent, up 2.1 points; DUP - 17 per cent, down 5.5 points; Sinn Fein - 12 per cent, down 9.7 points; Alliance - 6 per cent, up 2.4 points; Others - 17 per cent, up 12.4 points.

The others chosen include the Progressive Unionist Party - 4 per cent; Women's Coalition - 2 per cent; Ulster Democratic Party - 3 per cent; UK Unionist Party - 2 per cent; Workers Party, Northern Ireland Unionist Party and Independents - 1 per cent each; and others - 3 per cent.

In a sign of changed attitudes within the Catholic community, a clear majority now favours the deletion of Rule 21 of the GAA which bans members of the security forces from participating in Gaelic games. Some 51 per cent are in favour, 32 per cent against and 17 per cent with no opinion.

Among SDLP voters 60 per cent want the rule deleted with just 20 per cent opposed and 20 per cent with no opinion. Sinn Fein voters are the only group against change with only 24 per cent in favour, 62 per cent against and 14 per cent with no opinion.