THE INDEPENDENT Monitoring Commission (IMC) is tomorrow expected to publicly state that the IRA leadership did not sanction the murder of Paul Quinn from Cullyhanna in south Armagh last October.
The IMC, however, will state that current and former members of the IRA from the south Armagh area were involved in the beating to death of Mr Quinn in farm buildings in Co Monaghan after he was lured over the Border, it is understood.
This finding contradicts the assertion by Sinn Féin leaders such as Gerry Adams and Newry and Armagh MP and Northern Executive Minister Conor Murphy that the IRA was not involved.
The IMC yesterday presented its 18th report, which deals with Mr Quinn's murder and other paramilitary issues, to the British and Irish governments.
Both London and Dublin will be relieved that the IMC does not implicate the IRA leadership in Mr Quinn's killing.
Any such IMC indictment of the IRA leadership could have had catastrophic consequences for the powersharing Stormont administration. Senior DUP politicians had indicated that if Mr Quinn's murder was ordered or sanctioned at IRA army council or leadership level then it was likely to collapse the DUP-Sinn Féin dominated Northern Executive.
Nonetheless, the IMC's findings that IRA members were involved in Mr Quinn's murder will cause an unpredictable degree of political turbulence.
In particular, unionists who are opposed to powersharing such as MEP Jim Allister are likely to castigate the DUP and Ulster Unionist Party for continuing to sit on the Executive with Sinn Féin because of its links to the IRA, some of whose members have now been formally found to have killed Mr Quinn.
Previously, some unionist politicians such as DUP junior minister Jeffrey Donaldson indicated that the political fallout could be controlled if the IMC found that there was no IRA "corporate" or leadership responsibility for the murder.
Equally, though, Mr Donaldson also previously insisted that "if there is IRA involvement then obviously that has implications for the political process here".
"It is not something we will brush under the carpet. It will have to be dealt with. But we need to ensure that when people say they are moving on, that they are leaving violence and criminality behind, that is precisely what is happening," he said this year.
The IMC report is likely to trigger further calls for all IRA structures, including its army council, to be dismantled.
Unionists are also likely to use the report to justify their refusal to contemplate at this stage the transfer of policing and justice powers to the Northern Executive.
The report will also put further pressure on Sinn Féin president Mr Adams and Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness to shift from the party's position that the murder of Mr Quinn was carried out by "criminals" and not by the IRA.
The British and Irish governments are conscious that this IMC report could cause political difficulties. However, they are taking comfort from the fact that the IRA leadership is not implicated and that so far the DUP and Sinn Féin have been working well in the Executive to avoid major confrontations.
While this is the first time for the IMC to officially adjudicate on the murder last November, it described the killings as emanating from a "local dispute".
IMC member and former head of the London Metropolitan Police anti-terrorist squad John Grieve said at the time: "Despite the fact that we are saying it is a local dispute, we do believe that those who were involved in the attack on him - in his brutal murder - included people who are members or former members or have associations with members or former members of the Provisional IRA."