A survey of 13 maternity hospitals throughout the State has shown a sharp rise in the birth-rate between April and June this year, compared with the same period in 1996. The Irish National Teachers Organisation (INTO) carried out the survey of hospitals in Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Galway, Mullingar, Wexford, Portlaoise, Drogheda, Sligo, Letterkenny, Castle
bar and Ballinasloe. The union's interest is in predicting the future school-going population.
Its latest survey found that the number of births in the April-June period this year was 6.5 per cent higher than in the same period in 1996. If this trend were to continue for the whole of this year the number of births - at some 53,000 - would be the highest since 1988, said the INTO general secretary, Senator Joe O'Toole.
"Whatever the final figure, it is certain that 1997 will show an increase in births for the third year in succession," he said.
Last year's total was 50,358 - the first time since 1992 that it passed the 50,000 mark.
"We now know that the basis for the Department of Education estimates of primary school enrolments for the 1990s are significantly incorrect because they were based on an estimated annual birth-rate of 46,000 for the years 1996 to 1999." Mr O'Toole warned that as a result the education system was "headed for serious trouble as regards teacher supply."
From 1999, he predicted, "We will still have among the largest classes in Europe; we will have the lowest level of resources in special education; and we will still be spending far less per primary school pupil than any other country in the EU . . .
"Clearly the forecasters did not allow for immigration, decreased emigration and a younger population profile . . . The school population is increasing and there is no provision being made for the extra pupils. The Department of Education must change their vision of the future."