Every evening, as the sun sets over Punjab, the border forces of India and Pakistan put on a performance full of bravado and mock heroics. At Wagah, the only land-crossing between the rival nations, the two countries' frontier guards strut about with exaggerated ferocity, stamping their heels, presenting arms and barking out commands. Having lowered their national flags, soldiers on each side of the crossing slam closed their border gates for the night.
This old British army ritual, known as "beating the retreat", has become something of a local attraction for tourists and travellers. But beyond the sabre-rattling, there lies real menace. As the world's newest nuclear powers embark on the new millennium, this menace looms much larger than it did a year ago. After recent events in the region, no one observing India and Pakistan can have any cause for complacency.
Only 10 months ago relations between the two seemed to be improving. Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee went on the inaugural trip of a commercial bus service linking the two countries. Having reached his destination in Pakistan, he and his counterpart Nawaz Sharif signed the Lahore Declaration which underlined their intention of working towards a brighter and more co-operative future.
We now know, however, that while the ink on the document was drying, Pakistan was preparing to infiltrate its forces and Islamic militants into Indian territory in the disputed state of Kashmir.
The extent of the Pakistani prime minister's involvement in the operation is still being debated but, even as an unwilling accomplice, there is little doubt that Mr Sharif knew exactly what the Pakistani military was up to.
As Mr Vajpayee returned to Delhi after what was being hailed as an historic step forward in Indo-Pakistani relations, he could have had little inkling of what the coming months would hold. Three cataclysmic events were about to occur: one of his coalition allies was about to withdraw support for his minority government, precipitating a general election in India; Pakistani regulars and mujahedeen (freedom fighters) were about to invade Indian territory in the Himalayas, bringing India and Pakistan to the brink of all-out war; and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was about to be overthrown in a military coup which would cause convulsions both within and beyond Pakistan's borders.
"The year began in euphoria and has ended in deepest anger," observes one Indian political commentator. "After all that has happened, the prospects for dialogue and rapprochement between the two countries look extremely doubtful."
Pakistan's new military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, has made overtures to Mr Vajpayee in the wake of the coup but the Indian prime minister (re-elected with a stable majority in October) has not responded encouragingly. Mr Vajpayee recently announced that India will not hold talks with its neighbour unless the new Pakistani regime expresses unequivocal commitment to both the Lahore Declaration and the Shimla Agreement, a 1972 accord which ratifies the so-called Line of Control (LoC) as the commonly agreed ceasefire line in Kashmir.
There is little sign that General Musharraf is about to take the necessary steps to satisfy India's demands. The general (widely credited with having masterminded Pakistan's infiltration of the Kargil region in Kashmir) extended an olive branch to India in a post-coup national broadcast, announcing the withdrawal of Pakistani forces from the international border. But he made it clear that Pakistan would never negotiate away its claims to ruling all of the Muslim state of Kashmir.
Since then, insurgency activity on the Indian side of the LoC has increased, with a number of daring attacks having been launched in recent months against Indian army positions. There is no doubt that the Pakistani military is behind these attacks. Having been forced into an embarrassing climb-down over Kargil, Pakistan's forces seem bent on exacting revenge against India and creating as much instability in the region as possible.
India is understandably wary of General Musharraf and the Pakistani army. Conflict with India has long been the Pakistani military's raison d'etre and the Kargil conflict has only reinforced Indian suspicions.
"For as long as the military remains in charge in Pakistan, tension in Indo-Pakistani relations will remain at a high level," says one Indian political analyst. "Musharraf talks a lot about modernisation, reform and of returning the country to democracy but this is all to keep the international community at bay. The truth is he could be around for a long time."
Half of Pakistan's existence has been spent under military rule. If past experience is anything to go by, General Musharraf could find himself - perhaps despite his best intentions - becoming hostage to hardline elements within the Pakistani army command and unable to extricate himself from his seat of power.
If Pakistan's nuclear capability is made all the more frightening by her instability, then so too is India's by her nationalistic self-righteousness.
Indo-Pakistani relations seem destined to remain mired in distrust. The rhetoric on both sides will undoubtedly continue to harden. As Indian and Pakistani troops dig in for a long, hard winter in the snow-bound heights of Kashmir, it looks as if relations between their two countries are set for an increasingly cold phase.