Portugal:Treaty signing is only half the battle for Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, writes Jamie Smythin Lisbon
When EU leaders gather at Jerónimos monastery in Lisbon today to sign the Reform Treaty there will be a sense of deja vu for many of the participants, including the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern.
In October 2004, another world heritage listed site, Rome's Capitolino museum, was the venue for a similarly grandiose signing ceremony involving 54 EU political leaders and the now defunct EU Constitution.
Sitting underneath the magnificent fresco The Battle between Horatii and Curiatii, Europe's presidents, prime ministers and ministers of foreign affairs signed up to a text which was meant to decide Europe's institutional future for decades to come.
Ye, just nine months later French and Dutch voters plunged the EU into crisis by voting against the EU constitution in referendums, apparently consigning the finely-crafted political compromise achieved under Ireland's six-month presidency of the EU in 2004 to the dustbin.
After an 18-month "period of reflection" Europe's leaders finally agreed to try again to reform the EU. And with the election in June of France's dynamic president Nicolas Sarkozy, who floated the idea of a mini-treaty to be ratified by parliaments, the project gained momentum.
Despite a bitter fight at the European Council in June between former Polish prime minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski and German chancellor Angela Merkel, the outline of the new treaty negotiations were agreed.
It soon became clear that opinions on the new treaty were deeply divided. In a press conference after the June summit, Mr Ahern declared that 90 per cent of the substance contained in the EU constitution had been left intact in the new Reform Treaty.
"It was fascinating to sit here and listen to the debate about how removing the symbolism changes this," said Mr Ahern.
"We have taken out Article 8. Beethoven is out, and the flag is out. I don't think that will make a damn difference to anyone in Europe."
Yet only a few miles across the Irish Sea, British prime minister Gordon Brown, who famously refused to toast a final deal on the text of the treaty in October with a glass of champagne, insists the new treaty is radically different from the constitution.
Under fire from a Eurosceptic press corps, Mr Brown has emphasised the "red lines" and "opt-outs" negotiated by Britain in the fields of justice, social security and the charter of fundamental rights, which is a bill of rights for citizens.
Judging who is right on this question is no easy task, particularly given the complexity of the Reform Treaty, which runs to several hundred pages and has scores of declarations and protocols attached to it. "It is a matter of presentation," Antonio Missiroli, an analyst at the European Policy Centre told The Irish Times.
"Most of the substance of the constitution, probably 80 per cent, is there, but it is wrapped up in the form of an amending treaty." One of the core differences between the EU constitution and the Reform Treaty is that the former consolidated all the existing European treaties into one relatively simple text.
In contrast, the Reform Treaty is built on top of the existing treaties as an amending treaty, which must continually refer to the other treaties to make sense.
Presented this way, the treaty sheds its constitutional character,, enabling France and The Netherlands to argue that it is a different text from the one rejected in 2005.
It has also helped to persuade states such as Denmark that a referendum on the treaty is not necessary, and that parliament can shoulder the responsibility of ratification.
But as many critics have pointed out, it does little to bring the EU closer to its citizens, which was a key goal contained in the draft constitution.
Explicit references to the EU flag, motto and anthem have been removed and the title of the proposed new EU foreign minister has been downgraded to a become the High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy.
The post will, however, retain all the competences it had in the constitution, enabling its holder to chair meetings of EU foreign ministers and sit as a member of the European Commission.
The number of policy areas where states can retain their national veto and block community decisions will also be reduced if the treaty is ratified by all EU states. Legal experts suggest that in 49 areas, such as justice, social security and development aid, states will in the future take decisions by qualified majority rather than unanimity.
The European Parliament and European Court of Justice will also get to scrutinise these policies, a feature previously contained in the constitution. Ireland will be able to continue to opt out of community policies in the field of justice and home affairs.
But as EU leaders know only too well: the signing of a treaty is only half the battle. So when they clamber on board their jets tonight to make the trek to Brussels for the European Council, perhaps they will spare a thought for Mr Ahern, who is currently the only prime minister in Europe who faces a difficult referendum on this complex treaty.