SPAIN in general, and the Basque country in particular, collectively held its breath over the weekend, as the hours ticked away towards midnight on Sunday. This was the moment that ETA's week long truce, which had suddenly sent hopes of a Basque peace settlement soaring, would either come to an end or be extended.
The bad news is that ETA rejected conciliatory moves by the government, and most unusual pleas by some of its own supporters. The truce is over, and ETA considers itself to be once again at war with the "Spanish state".
The good news is that the very possibility of such a settlement, in the short term, is a considerable advance on the grim situation which existed before the March election.
On the one hand, the conservative Partido Popular (PP), a little intoxicated with the prospect of an absolute majority, seemed to rule out any concessions whatsoever to Basque separatism.
Listening to the rhetoric of its leaders at the hustings, it sounded likely that a tough minded PP government would take the path of increased repression, and further divide and radicalise the Basque people in the process.
Similarly, ETA and its political front, Herri Batasuna, had shown no signs of moderation earlier in the year. Euzkadi ta Askatasuna (Basque Homeland and Liberty) took up armed struggle against Francoism in the early 1960s. Some of its members passed into normal politics with the advent of democracy in the late I970s, but others resorted to increasingly indiscriminate violence in pursuit of a fully independent Basque country.
Last year ETA adopted a new double strategy of terror. Firstly, it targeted senior figures in political and legal circles, rather than police and army officers. Secondly, its youth section, Jarrai, embarked on an unprecedented campaign of street violence.
The outcome of the elections has conditioned much of what has happened since. The PP did not win the expected overall majority, and had to negotiate long and hard with the moderate Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), as well as the Catalans, to gain ample support to form a minority government.
As a result, the PP has radically shifted its position on the "pluri-national" nature of the Spanish state, and adopted a very respectful tone in dealing with the minority nationalities. The new Minister of the Interior, the critical position vis avis ETA, is a Basque PP member, Jaime Mayor Oreja.
He quickly galvanised a rather moribund anti terrorist forum among the Basque democratic parties, La Mesa de Ajuria Enea, with positive support from the PNV, which chairs it. While he has closed off the informal channels of communication with ETA established by his Socialist predecessors, he will probable create his own. He has clearly indicated that, if ETA abandons violence, the door to wide ranging dialogue is open.
Initially, the ETA post election position only seemed to harden, with terrorist attacks in the Basque country, Cordoba and Madrid. In mid May Herri Batasuna urged ETA "to fight the enemy with the most powerful means", and advised against a truce unless accompanied by negotiations.
It is hard to second guess ETA's reasons for apparently rejecting the counsel of its own political front. But it is probable that they felt obliged at least to appear to be responsive to the PP initiatives, in order to avoid increasing isolation in Basque society.
Their unconditional offer of a week's truce was coupled with a declaration that, if the government accepted "the right to self determination of the Basque country, respecting its territorial integrity", ETA would immediately call a full ceasefire. They got a quick and unusually united response from both Ajuria Enea and the government.
The Basque forum did not find the truce "real or sincere", partly because ETA was still retaining a kidnapped prison officer in captivity. But they held out the olive branch of "an open process of dialogue", not only between all political parties, but also, implicitly, between the Ministry of the Interior and ETA, conditional on a full suspension of violence. Simultaneously, as a goodwill gesture, that ministry began to move some ETA prisoners closer to their homes.
There was an atmosphere of quiet euphoria as the week went on. On Friday, a trade union associated with ETA called on it to prolong the truce, a most unusual development which suggested that something was really shifting in Basque politics.
By Monday morning it was clear that the shift was not sufficient to draw ETA into a full ceasefire. As usual, anyone predicting the future in these situations walks on eggshells, and tempts fate. The only thing it is safe to say, as this is written, is that the hope which bloomed briefly last weekend has not altogether faded.