Hindu party coalition set to win Indian election

Campaigning for the fifth and last round of voting in India's third general election in as many years ended yesterday, ahead …

Campaigning for the fifth and last round of voting in India's third general election in as many years ended yesterday, ahead of Sunday's vote for 121 remaining parliamentary seats. A further 418 seats have already been decided, with the advantage lying with the ruling Hindu nationalist coalition.

Police and paramilitary officials have been placed on alert in eastern Bihar, where shoot-at-sight orders have been issued against anyone attempting to capture polling booths. Most of the 56 people killed in poll-related violence since voting began on September 5 have died in Bihar.

Election Commission officials have declared nearly 30,000 polling booths across Bihar to be "sensitive " and deployed police and paramilitary personnel to protect them. Supporters of local candidates, accompanied by wrestlers and armed men, often try to capture these polling booths and stuff ballot boxes full of votes for their candidates. Counting will begin on October 6th, the results posted two days later with a government sworn in by October 21st.

Exit polls have indicated that the 24-party coalition led by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win well over half the 543 seats, having lost the majority by a single vote in April.

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The 18-month-old coalition of the Prime Minister, Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee, needs to win 272 of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha (People's House). The main opposition Congress party along with its partners would get around 145 seats, according to the exit poll telecast on Doordarshan, the state-run television network.

The relatively secular Congress is opposed to the BJP's sectarian policy which strives for Hindutva or Hindu hegemony and is opposed to Muslims. On economic and foreign policy matters, however, both parties agree on market reforms and are pro-Washington.

"The two major rivals have gained, but some of the regional parties which had become major players in national politics have taken a drubbing," said Mr Dorab Sopariwala, a poll analyst. The overall results, he added, suggested India was moving away from a multi-party to a less fragmented polity.

Voting in India's election, dubbed the "mother of all elections" by the Chief Election Commissioner, Mr Mohinder Singh Gill, has been spread over four weeks to help maintain security.

Around 4.5 million civil servants have been posted to some 800,000 polling stations, which will be guarded by more than 450,000 police and paramilitaries. Ballot boxes have been delivered by elephant to polling booths in India's north-eastern jungles, by camel in the western desert region and by mules in northern Himalayan areas. The world's highest polling booth is in the remote northern Ladakh region, bordering Tibet at a height of 15,000 feet. India has more than 605 million registered voters.

The elections will decide the fate of Italian-born Mrs Sonia Gandhi, widow of the former prime minister, Rajiv Gandhi, and head of the Congress party, making her first bid for public office from Bellary in southern India. Mrs Gandhi is also contesting from Amethi, her husband's constituency some 400 miles north-east of Delhi, as Indian parliamentary candidates can contest any number of seats.

Meanwhile, Ms Monica Lewinsky emerged at the centre of a dispute between the two main parties.

"If we are so keen on having a foreigner as prime minister, why not have Tony Blair or Bill Clinton or even Monica Lewinsky?" the Information Minister, Mr Pramod Mahajan, told a campaign rally. He was questioning the right of Mrs Gandhi to become the prime minister. The BJP has emphasised Mrs Gandhi's Italian birth and political inexperience.

The Defence Minister, Mr George Fernandes, fuelled the fire when he said Mrs Gandhi's only contribution to India had been to add to its burgeoning population by producing two children, son Rahul (29) and daughter Priyanka (27).

In its riposte, the Congress party attacked Mr Vajpayee for living with a widow and drinking heavily. It is well known, but rarely talked about, that the Prime Minister has been living with a widow for years and enjoys a drink. "I would like to tell BJP leaders that people in glass houses do not throw stones," the Congress party general secretary, Mr Ghulam Nabi Azad, said.

Mrs Gandhi replied: "The BJP's remarks [about her producing two children] prove beyond doubt that they can't tolerate a woman progressing in politics."

The stakes are high not only for the parties but also for the two leaders around whom the entire campaign has been conducted. They said Mr Vajpayee's political stature was being re-evaluated, while Mrs Gandhi's fledgling political career would be determined by the number of seats her party won.