FOR the past month, election fever has sporadically shaken the political parties as Bertie Ahern, followed by Mary Harney, Dick Spring and Proinsias De Rossa, listed those they would, or would not, do business with in forming a government. John Bruton was the only leader to hold his peace.
Mr Ahern's first choice was the Progressive Democrats, followed by the Labour Party; Ms Harney favoured Fianna Fail, but would not contemplate an arrangement with the Labour Party or Democratic Left; Mr Spring claimed he had written off the Progressive Democrats a year earlier; and Mr De Rossa said "no way" to Fianna Fail. There seemed to be a tacit belief that no single party would get an overall majority.
The exercise, one Fianna Fail source confided at the time, was all about vote transfers. By holding open the possibility of sharing government with both the Progressive Democrats and the Labour Party, Fianna Fail candidates could hope to benefit from a wider spread of transfers. And there was always the slight chance of an overall majority. But, one way or another, Fianna Fail had to be presented as the core party of a sure fire government in waiting.
The findings of the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll will make difficult reading for Mr Ahern. The electorate has been placed on an election footing and the result is that 22 per cent of voters are now in the "don't know" camp, the highest proportion since the last general election. The rise in the percentage of "don't knows" has come mainly from the core votes of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael at 4 and 3 per cent, respectively. And it is composed mainly of younger voters, a majority of them women.
The Labour Party has added two points to its mid summer low and Democratic Left also added a point. But the overall impression is of a political system in the doldrums, waiting for a steady political wind.
Having created a situation where the public is focused on political matters and is seriously considering the shape and composition of the next government, the opposition parties are now under pressure to display their worth. The next few months in the Dail will be as crucial for them as the negotiation of a new national wage agreement, the handling of BSE, the EU presidency and the shaping of a budget will be for the Government parties.
Crime, drug abuse and an inadequate security system are issues which have been identified by Fianna Fail as election winners. But the Government has responded with a raft of law and order measures from Nora Owen and it is now full steam ahead in pursuit of a referendum on bail this autumn. In that respect, voters favoured a change in the Constitution by a margin of seven to one and felt it should be made more difficult to secure bail.
The erosion of traditional differences within Irish politics and the willingness of party leaders to share power with erstwhile enemies appears to have contributed to public dissatisfaction. Mr Ahern's satisfaction rating has dropped by 10 points, to 52 per cent, since last September; Mr Spring has lost 7 points and stands at 51 per cent; Ms Harney and Mr De Rossa have dropped 6 points to 56 and 43 per cent, respectively. Mr Bruton's position remains unchanged at 54 per cent.
The core votes of the parties will also add to Fianna Fail's worries. At 36 per cent, Fianna Fail has hit a new low under Mr Ahern's leadership. Fine Gael has lost support and the Labour Party has gained some, but these changes are all within the statistical margin of error of opinion polls. What is totally different on this occasion, however, is the large proportion of "don't knows" overhanging the market.
The stage has been set for a fierce battle for the minds and votes of the electorate.