Today is the first day of 'stability operations', but many Iraqis hope troops stay on, writes Martin Chulovin Baghdad
DEEP INSIDE the main US base in Iraq, the US general who has run the conflict for the past two years is officially bringing an end to the war today.
Gen Ray Odierno, who started the war as a division commander, and had a son in uniform maimed along the way, will officially hand over control at Camp Victory to Lieut Gen Lloyd Austin III, whose 16-month mission here will be very different to his predecessors.
The military has dubbed tomorrow as the beginning of “stability operations”, and the end of combat. They are buzzwords that have been met with scepticism and fear throughout Iraq. There are many who doubt the invasion force is leaving, and many more hope the announcement doesn’t mean the troops will actually leave.
Around the country though, the signs of the US military’s departure are unmistakable. Over the past two years, US forces have closed down 411 bases. They will maintain 94 bases nationwide, at least in the weeks immediately following tomorrow’s ceremony.
Many, however, will be outposts where a small number of US forces will train and mentor Iraqi soldiers. They may occasionally patrol with them or join in on raids, but the US mission is designed from now on to be very much in the background.
At least 12 large bases will remain initially; Camp Victory at Baghdad airport, the nearby Camp Liberty, two bases inside the Green Zone, Taji and Balad bases north of Baghdad, bases in Mosul, Kirkuk and Ramadi, as well as al-Assad to the west, and forward vases in Nasireyah and Basra.
There are now just over 49,000 US soldiers scattered throughout the bases, around 1,000 less than commanders had foreshadowed for the September 1st handover date. A total of 92,000 have left since the peak of the troop surge in 2007 – and their absence is obvious everywhere.
Since the signing of the Status of Forces Agreement on June 30th last year, which set prescribed limits for the US role in Iraq, US military convoys have become a rare sight on the streets of the capital. The giant, crustacean-like convoys are now so few and far between that their presence makes the news.
At a staging yard in one of the US military’s main camps in southern Iraq, columns of reinforced trucks are lined up to be driven out of Iraq. More than 860,000 items have now left Iraq. Any truck marked with an “A” is off to fight another war. Those left unmarked are going home.
US officials have confirmed privately over the past fortnight that even a military coup in Iraq would be unlikely to force renewed US intervention here.
“If it went on for a few hours and things were sorted out, we would probably let it go,” said one general. “If it went for longer, it would be a difficult decision, but even then we would probably leave it up to them. That’s what withdrawing from Iraq means.”
The reason for that is that the remaining troops are not geared up to fight a war. They are mainly engineers and trainers, who can defend themselves, but not launch another invasion.
At the sharp end, US special forces will remain in Iraq until the last troops leave on December 31st, 2011. They will join Iraqi special forces on raids such as those which led to the deaths of two of al-Qaeda’s main leaders in Iraq in April.
The rest of the troop withdrawal will have none of the fanfare of the designated end-of-combat operations. By the beginning of 2012, one US commander estimates that only a few hundred US troops will be left in Iraq – largely confined to the US embassy.
"We will fade away quietly," said the general. "We really are leaving." – ( Guardianservice)