Shipments of consumer personal computers worldwide are set to tumble 10 per cent this year versus a year ago, top market research firm International Data Corp (IDC) said today.
The decline would mark the first year-on-year drop in personal computer sales since 1986, according to industry data, and would be far below the flat growth rate forecast earlier.
Falling consumer PC shipments in the United States and Japan were a major factor in the downward revision in the forecast by the US-based firm, one of the world's leading trackers of PC market trends.
The dampened expectations come despite next month's expected release of the next generation of Microsoft's Windows XP operating system, IDC noted.
Historically, upgrades of the Windows operating system that controls basic PC functions have helped fuel demand for new PCs capable of running the more demanding software. But any Windows XP boost is unlikely until mid-2002 or even 2003, IDC said.
Of the world's top five PC makers, only one - current market leader Dell Computer - managed to grow during the second quarter, said IDC and other market forecasters.
Consumer PC shipments in the United States are expected to decline 25 per cent in 2001, and IDC projects flat consumer shipment growth internationally, down from 39 per cent growth in 2000.
Commercial PC shipment growth is also declining, but less steeply than consumer markets. Worldwide, commercial PC shipment growth is projected by IDC to fall to 3.2 per cent in 2001 from a growth rate of 10.5 per cent in 2000.
IDC predicted that any rebound in the consumer PC market will begin to pick up outside the United States by mid- to late-2002 as Windows XP gains momentum in the market.