German consumer confidence will rise in September as stronger economic growth and declining unemployment boost income expectations, GfK said.
GfK's consumer sentiment index, based on a survey of about 2,000 people, will climb to 4.1 from a revised 4 in August, the Nuremberg-based market research company said in an e-mailed statement today. Economists forecast the index to climb to 4 from a previously reported 3.9, the median of 20 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey shows.
German households may grow more confident after the economy expanded at a record pace in the second quarter, business confidence surged to a three-year high in August and unemployment declined in July.
The Bundesbank on August 19th raised its German growth forecast for this year, saying that the "growth tempo will normalise" in the second half.
"German consumers hold the key to self-sustained growth," said Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING Group in Brussels. "The improvement in the labor market and particularly the increase in employment bode well for a further pickup of private consumption in the second half of the year."
The euro rose after the report and traded at $1.2717 at 9am in Frankfurt.
"Consumers clearly don't believe the recovery of the German economy to be a flash in the pan but rather expect it to continue," GfK said in a statement. Faster hiring probably also contributed to a positive trend in the consumer mood.
Unemployment fell for a 13th month in July, pushing the adjusted jobless rate to 7.6 per cent from 7.7 per cent. That's the lowest since November 2008. Consumer spending rose 0.6 per cent in the second quarter, its first gain in a year.
Bloomberg