US GAINS in the war in Afghanistan are “fragile and reversible”, President Barack Obama said in a statement to the press yesterday regarding his administration’s Afghanistan-Pakistan review.
Mr Obama promised the review a year ago, when he decided to send another 30,000 US troops to Afghanistan. It was meant to be a major reassessment, based on the experience of the intervening year. In the event, it was little more than a formality.
Mr Obama – and secretary of defence Robert Gates and secretary of state Hillary Clinton who spoke after him – gave the impression of flailing about in their attempt to be both positive and truthful. “This continues to be a very difficult endeavour,” Mr Obama said, adding that “we are on track to achieve our goals”. The goals he listed have not changed – “disrupting, dismantling and defeating al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan”. In December 2009, Mr Obama made a commitment to begin reduce the 100,000 US troops in Afghanistan next summer. Almost immediately, his cabinet members downplayed that promise.
The decision on how many soldiers will depart has been postponed until the spring, but it is now clear that it will be a small, symbolic number. The recent Nato summit in Lisbon said combat operations in Afghanistan would be completed by the end of 2014. This almost surreptitious, four-year extension of the war was very much in evidence yesterday, when Mr Obama and Mr Gates emphasised the later date.
Gen David Petraeus, who was not present at the White House yesterday, said last week that 2014 was merely a goal. After nine years of fighting, Afghanistan is the longest war in US history. Mr Obama and Ms Clinton referred to the 49 nations allied with the US in Afghanistan, as if to reassure Americans they weren’t alone. More than 680 foreign soldiers have been killed in this deadliest year of the war, including more than 470 Americans.
As the projected duration of the war increases, public patience grows thin. A poll published by the Washington Postyesterday showed that 60 per cent of Americans – the highest number to date – now believe the Afghan war has not been worth fighting.
More worrying still for Mr Obama, who hopes to be re-elected in 2012, that figure rises to 72 per cent among Democrats.
“If you look at polling in almost all the 49 countries [participating in the war], opinion is against it,” Mr Gates admitted. “It’s the responsibility of leaders to pay attention to public opinion, but it’s also their responsibility to look after the public interest.”
A poll conducted by western news organisations in Afghanistan, cited on Timemagazine's website, found that 55 per cent of Afghans want western forces to leave the country as soon as possible. Only 36 per cent said they trusted foreign troops to protect them.
National Intelligence Estimates on Afghanistan and Pakistan which were delivered to the White House and Congress last month spoke of the difficulty of winning the war as long as Pakistan allows the Taliban and al-Qaeda to take refuge along its border. But the Pakistani government is unlikely to take strong action, the reports concluded.
Mr Obama addressed the US’s two most intractable problems – the corruption of the Afghan government and the Pakistanis’ unwillingness to crack down on extremists – in his statement.
“There must be a continued focus on the delivery of basic services, as well as transparency and accountability [in Afghanistan],” he said.
“The Pakistani government recognises that terrorist networks in its border regions are a threat to all our countries, especially Pakistan,” Mr Obama continued. “Nevertheless, progress has not come fast enough. ”