NORTHERN IRELAND:The leaders of the Northern Executive – and Peter Robinson in particular – need to put aside worries about their vulnerability in next year's British general election and ensure that the coalition remains viable, writes GERRY MORIARTY, Northern Editor
TWO PROFOUNDLY contrasting images of Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness standing together encapsulate the political and paramilitary theme of the year just past, one positive, the other depressing. Then there was Gerry Adams and the shocking travails affecting his family. It was some year, and what’s around the corner is hard to forecast. Cool heads are required.
In the first picture the First Minister and Deputy First Minister joined the former PSNI chief constable, Sir Hugh Orde, in condemning the Real IRA murders of British soldiers Patrick Azimkar and Mark Quinsey in Antrim and the murder shortly thereafter of PSNI constable Stephen Carroll in Craigavon by the Continuity IRA.
That was in March. It was a powerful image and a huge moment because McGuinness went on to describe the killers as “traitors to the island of Ireland”. More qualified language was expected, but here was a republican leader accusing fellow republicans of treachery, the most cardinal of sins in republican eyes.
It did not diminish the horror of the murders, the terrible tragedy for the bereaved, or the still current threat from dissident republicans, but it was the surest indication that McGuinness, Gerry Adams et al had made the full journey from war to peace. Even unionists seemed to realise viscerally that here was a Sinn Féin and former IRA chief moving outside his constituency and bringing most of his constituency with him.
That was a picture of hope. Nine months later Robinson and McGuinness were in Limavady, Co Derry, for a meeting of the North-South Ministerial Council, again standing shoulder to shoulder – but only in the physical sense – with Brian Cowen also in the frame.
A question from The Irish Timeson parades, and whether McGuinness might resign if there was no agreement on policing and justice by Christmas, triggered the first public quarrel between First Minister and Deputy First Minister. There were harsh words, hard looks and much head-shaking. So much so in fact that it prompted the BBC and UTV to hire body- language experts to tell us what we already knew, that if Robinson and McGuinness didn't start playing politics as the art of the possible, then we were heading for a "train wreck", to use a phrase of Sinn Féin's.
It was a curious year in Northern Ireland, and it is hard to find a logic or rationale for the rut in which its politics is now stuck. Brian Cowen and Gordon Brown are spending part of their Christmas holidays considering how to haul the political wagon out of the mud and set it on course again. At the time of writing there were some guarded indications that they might succeed. But that has been the nature of this policing-and-justice-inspired DUP/Sinn Féin stand-off: one day there is a prospect of resolution, the next day Robinson and McGuinness are daggers-drawn again.
The central point, however, is that the latter part of 2009 was a time of bah-humbug politics. The focus was on negativity and on doing down the main coalition partner, rather than, out of pure self-interest, seeking and achieving compromise and making politics work, which is the point of most coalitions.
The Northern Executive may not be a normal coalition, but it is the only one that Northern Ireland has. The only alternative, notwithstanding some fanciful talk of voluntary coalition (effectively a ruse to try to exclude Sinn Féin), is a return to direct rule, with an enhanced role for Dublin. If the Conservatives win the forthcoming British general election, the Dublin-London axis might not be as green-tinged as it would be under Gordon Brown and Labour, but it is still a fact that David Cameron would need the Government in the South to help make direct rule work.
SO WHY AREwe in this mess? Well, it's the elections, stupid. The first election was in June this year when Peter Robinson and others in his party appear to have been petrified by the performance of Traditional Unionist Voice leader Jim Allister, who polled more than 66,000 votes in the European poll. DUP candidate Diane Dodds won a seat, but she won poorly. This knocked the stuffing out of a lot of DUP personnel and they haven't quite picked themselves up again.
The second election is the Westminster one coming pretty quickly down the track. It must happen by early June and there is speculation now that the British prime minister could opt for a March poll. It will be happening against the backdrop of a minor renaissance for the Ulster Unionist Party, buoyed by its link-up with the Tories, who could take a seat and possible more from the DUP. Jim Allister will be battling one of the Ian Paisleys – most likely Ian junior – for Dr Paisley’s seat in North Antrim.
It’s that pincer UUP-TUV threat that has Peter Robinson worried. It’s also why we’ve all been wondering whether Robinson will put off a deal on policing and justice until after the British general election because, he seems to believe, a macho stance on the issue might play well with the unionist electorate and strengthen his chances of holding most or, on a very good day, all of his nine House of Commons seats. The worst one to lose would be North Antrim, where a defeat would threaten Robinson’s leadership of the DUP. Moreover, the DUP, and especially Peter and Iris Robinson, have been damaged by the House of Commons expenses scandal. Robinson’s tactic seems to be that only playing hardball will convince his unionist constituency to remain steadfast with the DUP.
But Sinn Féin has a constituency to manage as well, a constituency which reckons that Robinson has been cavalier in sticking it to Martin McGuinness and the Shinners over much of 2009. It’s not just about policing and justice. Sinn Féin has no Irish-language act to show for its efforts; the Maze stadium, together with its conflict transformation centre, never happened; there’s still no bill of rights; education reform is in a mess; and North-South co-operation is in the slow lane. And just as Gordon Brown pledged up to £1 billion to facilitate the transfer of policing and justice, Peter Robinson (who, like some of his Northern political colleagues, doesn’t seem to do gratitude) introduced a new pre-condition on parading before he would agree to the transfer of justice powers.
All of which, when you think of it, explains the verbal and head-shaking squabble between Robinson and McGuinness in Limavady towards the end of this year. The DUP is making no concessions to Sinn Féin, which, in a normal political situation, might just rank as fair enough. But Northern Ireland isn’t yet normal. These are the two main coalition partners in the Northern Executive, and if they can’t work together then power-sharing can’t work. It’s simple really: it’s about give and take, not just DUP take.
The genuinely shocking allegations about Gerry Adams’s brother, Liam, abusing his daughter, Áine, and the disclosures that Gerry Adams’s father, also called Gerry, physically, emotionally, psychologically and sexually abused some of his family, were a different and troubling story. But they also feed into what is happening politically. They compound the political misery and dysfunction.
Peter Robinson, Martin McGuinness and Gerry Adams achieved the power-sharing compromise at Stormont. It’s what they all wanted. Robinson particularly – because what happens next is in his hands – but also McGuinness need to make a new year’s resolution to make it work. If they don’t, most worryingly, it will serve the interests of the dissident republicans, who will seek to fill the political vacuum with more violence, and of the unionist rejectionists in Jim Allister’s TUV, who want to crash the whole power-sharing edifice at Stormont. The Sinn Féin and DUP leaders need to start acting like normal coalition partners.
