HALF an hour before the British soldier was shot dead in south Armagh, a militant republican supporter on Belfast's Lower Ormeau Road was venting his disdain for recent IRA attacks.
"They shoot to miss now," he told me. They may as well hand in their guns, for they're waging a phoney war.
No organisation had last night admitted responsibility for the attack in Bessbrook but most observers blame the IRA.
The Continuity Army Council (CAC), which security forces say is the paramilitary wing of Republican Sinn Fein, is also active in that area and has the military capacity to carry out such an operation. However, last night's shooting had all the hallmarks of the IRA.
Local people reported that the soldier died after being hit by a single high velocity shot. They believed that south Armagh's infamous IRA sniper was back in business. Before the 1994 ceasefire, he had killed at least 10 RUC officers and British soldiers in single shot attacks.
The IRA leadership has been under immense pressure in recent months to mount "successful" operations. Among the more extreme sections of the republican community, its campaign was openly ridiculed.
The Provisionals had killed "only" one person in the North in the past four months. The IRA broke its ceasefire a year ago with the Canary Wharf bombing in London. But it was eight months later before it launched an attack in Northern Ireland.
During the summer, despite events at Drumcree and the Lower Ormeau which could have been cited as provocation, the Provisionals operated a de facto ceasefire. Their failure to strike then led to the belief that their leadership did not want to return to violence in the North.
However, unprecedented dissatisfaction and dissent among grass roots activists forced their hand. In October, the IRA army council sanctioned the bombing of British army headquarters in Lisburn, Co Antrim, in which one soldier was killed.
But since then failure has followed failure. Planned attacks have been aborted, weapons have been recovered, bombs have not gone off. Last week the IRA leadership denied vehemently that it was operating a phoney war, but the suspicion is rife among its grassroots.
Why is the most deadly guerrilla organisation in the world making a series of operational blunders? A republican source in west Belfast last night believed that the Bessbrook shooting would mark the end of such failures.
"I think that the bombs will be detonated and the mortars will suddenly start exploding from now on, he said.
However, the forthcoming Westminster elections will have a restraining effect on IRA activities. An attack with major fatalities, particularly if they were civilian, would destroy Sinn Fein chances of electoral success.
Last night's shooting in Bessbrook does not mean a returns to pre 1994 levels of violence by the IRA. The Provisional IRA leadership may continue to sanction shootings and bombings during the coming months but, long term, it has its eye on a new British government restarting the peace process.