IRISH foreign policy in 1996 will be dominated by the EU and its development more intensively than in any other year since Ireland joined the EEC back in 1973. Taking over the EU presidency next July will also in Ireland chairing for the first time the Inter-Governmental Conference (IGC).
Irish ministers will thus be playing key roles not only in the day-to-day business of the EU but also in the drafting of plans for its future as regards common foreign and security policy (CFSP) and how the Union will work when enlarged to 27 members.
As it happens, Ireland's own foreign policy will be spelled out early in 1996 for the first time in a White Paper. After the best part of a year in the drafting stage, the document has now gone to the party leaders for their perusal over Christmas.
The White Paper should be approved by the full Cabinet some time in January. While it will range over all aspects of foreign policy, including the development of the foreign service itself, most interest will focus on the Government's preferred option for Ireland's role in CFSP, especially relations with the Western European Union and with the Nato-sponsored Partnership for Peace programme.
It is now certain that the Government will not opt for full membership of WEU, although this was part of Fine Gael's policy platform for the last European elections in 1994. Such a commitment would mean the end of military neutrality and be unacceptable to the Labour and Democratic Left partners.
The Tanaiste, Mr Spring, who has responsibility for the White Paper, is likely to recommend a closer relationship with the WEU instead of the current observer status.
This closer relationship will mean readinesss to undertake actions with EU and at times UN approval in the areas of peacekeeping, crisis management, conflict prevention and humanitarian tasks. This would not mean a departure from our present policy of neutrality as there would be no obligation to come to the military assistance of another EU member if attacked.
While the Partnership for Peace programmes would not in themselves involve a departure from neutrality and at present involve virtually all European countries, including other neutrals, the Nato aspect could cause problems for the Government.
The White Paper's proposals will he eventually debated in the Dail, but will first be examined by the Oireachtas committees on foreign and European affairs. Whether there will be time to have these debates before the IGC begins in Turin at the end of March under the Italian presidency remains to be seen.
For the Tanaiste himself, an extra burden will come even before the presidency next July as from January he becomes part of what is called the EU "troika". This is the arrangement whereby the foreign ministers of the countries which have just given up the presidency and which are preparing to take it over join with the president-in-office in political dialogue with 17 non-EU countries and nine regional groupings.
This will involve high-level meetings with the United States, Japan, Russia and regional groupings like Asean in South-East Asia, the Gulf Co-operation Council in the Middle East and Mercosur in South America.
The Tanaiste will be putting forward EU policy towards these countries and areas rather than specific Irish policy. Likewise, when he takes over the EU presidency, he will be chairing meetings of foreign ministers and seeking compromise solutions, while Minister of State Gay Mitchell will be sitting in the Irish seat.
Mr Spring will also have to make frequent appearances before the European Parliament to answer MEPs' questions to the Council of Ministers. The Taoiseach Mr Bruton, will go to Strasbourg next July to set out the presidency's programme to the parliament for the second half of 1996.
OUTSIDE of the time-consuming EU agenda, Irish foreign policy will have to address UN and development aid matters. The White Paper will set out new ideas on UN reform and peace-keeping. The Government favours a more pro-active role for the UN in preventing crises rather than reacting to them.
The White Paper will also take up the relationship between the Department of Foreign Affairs and state agencies promoting economic development. A start has been made on bringing diplomatic missions and the overseas offices of these agencies under one roof as in Tokyo and New York.
A new development could be arranging closer links between the diplomatic service and the private sector. This could mean temporary interchanges of personnel between the two areas.
The EU presidency will mean numerous high-level meetings in Ireland. These will include the Summit of Heads of State and Government at Dublin Castle in December, and possibly an informal summit at an earlier date. The foreign, finance, justice, agriculture. social and education ministers of the 15 EU countries will also hold informal meetings at various venues around the country.