THE dust hasn't settled in Galway West following Maire Geoghegan Quinn's decision to leave politics. But the constituency, notoriously difficult to call in the past, has become one of the easiest to predict.
Senator Frank Fahey will win MGQ's seat for Fianna Fail, giving the party two seats. Fine Gael, Labour and the Progressive Democrats will win one each.
Mrs GeogheganQuinn's departure in January was a blow to the party at national level, but her position was always precarious in her home base. She won her father's seat 22 years ago but struggled to succeed at almost every election since, often just scraping in on the last count.
Although she gave media intrusion as the reason for her decision, there is a growing conviction in the constituency that the very real possibility of defeat this year helped make her mind up.
The two standard bearers for Fianna Fail in Galway West are now Eamon O Cuiv, who was elected on the first count in 1992, and Senator Fahey, who was narrowly defeated by Mrs Geoghegan Quinn on the 10th count.
Her final tally then was just 235 votes ahead of Senator Fahey.
Since then Senator Fahey has moved his base from south Galway to the city and has been campaigning strongly for at least the past year. His efforts have paid off: opinion polls indicate he will be elected without difficulty.
Fianna Fail still believes at least in public - that it has a chance of winning a third seat. For that to happen it would have to unseat Labour's Michael D Higgins, who topped the poll in 1992; Fine Gael's Padraic McCormack, who looks secure; or the Progressive Democrats' Bobby Molloy.
Mr Molloy's position has been made much more secure by Mrs Geoghegan Quinn's departure. Few believe he, Mr Higgins or Mr McCormack are in any danger.
Most interest will centre on a sideshow: the internecine warfare within Fianna Fail over the decision by the national executive to add Cllr Margaret Cox to the ticket.
Ms Cox (33), was co opted to her father Tom's seat on Galway Corporation following his death in 1995. She has been an outspoken critic of the corporation's plans to build a sewage treatment plant on Mutton Island and this has upset supporters of the scheme within her party.
At the selection convention to chose Mrs Geoghegan Quinn's successor, she was narrowly defeated by Cllr Sean O Neachtain, a teacher from Spiddal. The subsequent decision by the party's national executive to add her to the ticket has caused much resentment among Mr O Neachtain's supporters. As a result, the party remains as deeply divided as ever in Galway West.
Ms Cox is a businesswoman based in the city and is regarded by Fianna Fail as well placed to siphon some of the anger in the city at the corporation's dogged determination to persist with its Mutton Island plans.
The long running controversy is likely to flare again during the election campaign, especially if the fine weather continues.
The promenade at Salthill is a favourite walking route, but the combination of sun and sewerage is not an attractive one.
Watch out for a strong protest vote on this issue for the Green Party's Pat Fitzpatrick, a vocal campaigner in the city on a variety of issues. But he is unlikely to take a seat unless there is a substantial swing to the party.
But then, past Green Party performances have shown its candidates picking up transfers right across the board. He is in with a chance in a constituency with an evenly spread field such as Galway West, if he manages to survive the early counts.