The likelihood of Fianna Fáil leading a coalition government after the next general election has increased, according to an Irish Times/MRBI poll.
However, the poll clearly indicates the support of independents will still be required if the existing Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrat Government is to be returned.
The opinion poll to be published in tomorrow's Irish Timesmakes disappointing reading for the opposition, particularly Fine Gael who, according to the poll, have fallen three points in the public's estimation.
Labour and Fianna Fáil both lost one percentage point while the PDs and the Green Party remained unchanged at three and five per cent respectively.
Independents increased their showing by two per cent and Sinn Féin increased their appeal by three per cent, according to the poll.
With the State's three largest parties all ruling out the prospect of Sinn Féin being allowed into government, the latest showing further damages Fine Gael's hopes of reviving a coalition government with Labour.
And while the poll points to an FF/Lab coalition, which most political commentators have been predicting for some time, the prospect of the existing parties returning for a second term may have become more likely with the PDs announcement of two high-profile candidates standing in the next general election.
Labour leader Mr Ruairi Quinn has more than his least preferred option as a coalition partner to worry about: his rating as party leader has fallen six points to 41 per cent.
The poll makes even grimmer reading for Fine Gael's Mr Michael Noonan whose party-leader rating is also down six to 31 per cent, the lowest of any of the leaders.
The poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday of this week, at the height of the publicity for the PDs recruitment of Attorney General Mr Michael McDowell and former Irish Farmers Association president Mr Tom Parlon.
Despite the pre-election coup, the party's support did not increase and satisfaction with the job being done by party leader Ms Mary Harney as Tánaiste fell five to 54 per cent.
The Irish Times/MRBI poll assessed the satisfaction rate with the leadership of Mr Trevor Sargent of the Green Party and Sinn Fein's Mr Gerry Adams for the first time.
With Mr John Gormley likely to come under severe pressure for his seat following the Attorney General's decision to run against him in Dublin South East, Mr Sargent, the Green Party's other TD would surely have hoped for a better leader-satisfaction rating of 35 per cent. However, over 50 per cent said they had no opinion when questioned.
Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams showed a 56 per cent satisfaction rate as leader of his party and will be pleased with the three per cent increase in his party's popularity suggesting it may increase its Dáil representation at the next general election.
The big winner in the popularity stakes was once again the Taoiseach whose already spectacular popularity showed even more radiant in the latest poll, with 68 per cent of respondents indicating they were satisfied with the job Mr Ahern is doing.
Despite Mr Ahern's four per cent increase, satisfaction with his Government fell by 10 per cent.
FF .........
41 down 1
FG .........21 down 3
Lab .......11 down 1
Others ..11 up 2
SF ..........8 up 3
Greens ..5 same
PDs ........3 same
Poll conducted from a national quota sample of 1000 electors in 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies in the State last Monday and Tuesday.
- All comparisons with poll in May 2001