Fianna Fail is in the driving seat at the end of week one and managed to distract the Opposition with the row over economics, but the agenda has started to shift, reports Mark Brennock, Political Correspondent
It was a week of two halves. For the first half, Fianna Fáil held the agenda in a vice grip as they pursued the Opposition, and in particular Fine Gael, over the alleged black hole in their economic plans. But at the end of the week, other issues surfaced, the first opinion polls were published and suddenly the campaign took on a life of its own.
To the relief of Fine Gael, yesterday's Irish Times/MRBI poll has shown the contest isn't over, the much predicted and feared Fine Gael "meltdown" is not apparent, and the party may have some modest upward momentum on which to build. Labour's 12 per cent showing is respectable and the 17 per cent in Dublin - where it has six target seats - is encouraging.
But at the end of week one, Fianna Fáil remains at the top of the heap, protesting that no matter how well it is doing it just can't get an overall majority. The prospects of a Fine Gael-led government can't quite be ruled out, but the party has a mountain to climb.
Yesterday Fine Gael attacked the Government's record on health, while Labour criticised it over housing. They can only hope that with economic figures at last pushed off the top of the election agenda, one of these quality-of -life issues will catch the public imagination.
The Progressive Democrats, the Green Party, Sinn Féin and Independents all surfaced sporadically on the national agenda during the week. But for them the battle is in a handful of constituencies where their better candidates hope local loyalty and some national profile will win them the couple of seats that will make the difference between success and failure.
For an Opposition intent on hammering the Government over its record on health, housing and crime, the opening few days of the campaign were deeply frustrating. Fianna Fáil launched attack after attack on Fine Gael's economic plans, and to a lesser extent on Labour.
Both parties were forced to respond to excruciatingly detailed Fianna Fáil charges and the press ran with the story for the first half of the week. Policy launches by Labour and Fine Gael were pushed down the news agenda as politicians and journalists alike danced to Fianna Fáil's tune.
Fianna Fáil had not invented the issue out of nowhere. As soon as Fine Gael's manifesto was launched eight days ago it was clear they had a question to answer: how could they tax less, restrain borrowing and supply better services at the same time, as they promised?
Fianna Fáil's pre-election research showed voters felt good about the economy, and would not react well to anyone offering goodies that could not be paid for. The public is not so happy about the state of the health services, housing, crime and childcare. What better than to keep them thinking about the economy for as long as possible? The debate might well be boring and incomprehensible but it sure beat being attacked over hospital waiting lists, street crime and the cost of houses.
Fianna Fáil's fire was concentrated almost entirely on Fine Gael, the desire to bash Labour tempered by the need not to portray them as too off the wall lest they have to go into government with them in a few weeks time.
The Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, said several times this week that at least Labour was being honest, offering more spending but demonstrating how they would pay for it through increasing employers' PRSI, diverting most of the long-term pension fund money to capital spending on health, and increasing capital gains tax.
Dermot Ahern went out several times to claim Labour would borrow for capital spending, and to echo the PD line that their plans would lead to a flight of capital and economic devastation. The line was leavened by the Taoiseach on several occasions, who remarked that really there wasn't much in Labour's plans that would provide a barrier to going into government with them if necessary.
The argument over macroeconomic forecasts ran until Wednesday night, when an attempt to agree on a panel of independent economists to pronounce on the fiscal soundness of all manifestos collapsed. After days of what Fine Gael's Senator Maurice Manning called the "it's a biscuit, it's a bar" debate, there was nothing left to say.
Other issues had begun to break through the wall of economics already. The visit to the empty extension of Mullingar Hospital by Fine Gael leader Michael Noonan successfully highlighted the delays in the expansion of health facilities.
Michael McDowell's robust attack on the Taoiseach's Abbotstown project dramatically put the PDs - and Mr McDowell himself - in the line of sight of the electorate.
Fianna Fáil's advertising campaign is centred to an extraordinary extent on the party leader. Giant images of the Taoiseach are everywhere. But an interesting contrast between this campaign and the 1997 campaign is the reduction in media coverage of Mr Ahern's daily whirlwind tours of constituencies.
His trips around the State have been relegated to inside pages of newspapers and later parts of news bulletins. The breathless wonderment at his rate of handshakes per hour that featured so strongly in 1997 has faded, while the number of miles per hour covered by his motorcade has attracted more press attention.
If Michael Noonan has a mountain to climb, Bertie Ahern isn't going to help him do it. In a repeat of 1997 he has turned down any television debate in this campaign save one at the end when most people have made up their minds. His handlers' calculation appears to be that with Michael Noonan well behind in the Taoiseach stakes, a debate with Mr Ahern could only boost his standing. Television debating is not his strongest point, so he will be exposed to as little of it as possible.
If there is great confidence within Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael is breathing a sigh of relief rather than jumping for joy after the Irish Times poll. During the economic row Michael Noonan and his senior colleagues struggled to be heard on other issues. From now on they hope he will be prominent, attacking the Government, outlining an alternative vision and using the last fortnight of the campaign to put himself forward as a credible alternative Taoiseach.
This week Michael Noonan was more relaxed, delivering the colourful similes and soundbites of old as he sought to move the campaign off the turgid discussion of economic data. The Taoiseach's job was not "as a mechanic fine-tuning the economy with a torque wrench and a screwdriver", he said. Fianna Fáil had turned a surplus into a deficit "faster than Mandrake the Magician". His rhetoric is consistent and coherent and social democratic in tone.
We must be a society, not a market, he says, composed of citizens, not consumers. What use is economic growth without growth in quality of life?, he asks. It contrasts clearly with the economic rhetoric of the Government, which implies that what is good for business is good for society, that social insurance is a tax on jobs, and that the state of the General Government Balance in 2007 is the key issue in the election.
But while the rhetoric differs, the policy difference is less clear. The party is promising less spending than Fianna Fáil or Labour on building hospitals and other capital projects, arguing with some justification that with the construction industry in the State stretched, it is simply not possible to spend any more. They have various packages on childcare, pensions, housing and education, but while their broad message sounds distinct from Fianna Fáil, there is little evidence of a left/right divide between the parties on policy terms.
Labour has developed a reputation for being honest and direct during the week. They launched sections of their manifesto on each of the first six days of the campaign, detailing plans on health, housing, crime, childcare and other issues.
Health funding will be paid for by using 75 per cent of the contributions earmarked for the long-term pension fund; major childcare measures will be paid for by an increase in employers' PRSI; and the rate of capital gains tax will be increased.
Ruairí Quinn has looked more relaxed than ever in the campaign, apparently enjoying the canvass.
Fianna Fáil varies from praising Labour's honesty about how it proposes to fund extra spending, to warning against its proposals to divert most of the long-term pension fund contributions to health for the next five years and to increase capital gains tax.
The Progressive Democrats, seeking definition through contrasting themselves with Labour, suggest Labour's proposed increase of PRSI back to the level it was at for almost the entire lifetime of this Government would cause employment devastation.
It is almost two weeks since the Progressive Democrats launched their manifesto but they have attracted attention during the campaign through two unexpected events.
Michael McDowell's attack on the Taoiseach's stadium project got the party into the headlines. And Ms Harney's swift legal response to an article concerning her in Magill magazine, widely seen as untrue, may also have boosted her and her party.
But the story of the first week is Fianna Fáil. They dominated the agenda for much of the week, ending it with very strong poll ratings.
After week one, the election is Fianna Fáil's to lose.