CONSTITUENCY PROFILE: LAOIS OFFALY:BRIAN COWEN'S retirement from politics was bad news for Fianna Fáil here. The former party leader secured 19,102 first-preference votes in the last general election and his transfers ensured the election of two running mates.
The Taoiseach’s place on the ticket has been taken by his younger brother Barry, chairman of Offaly County Council. There is sympathy for the Taoiseach locally, so despite the party’s decline there is likely to be enough support to ensure there is a Cowen in the next Dáil.
Once the “Cowen seat” is filled, it starts to get problematic. Minister of State at the Department of Health, the unflappable John Moloney, and the party’s new spokesman on public sector reform, Seán Fleming, are both Laois-based. There is no possibility both can be re-elected and even taking one seat in Laois is a challenge for Fianna Fáil. Fleming is seen as the stronger candidate.
Last time out, the party had two contenders in Offaly as well. Brian Cowen’s running mate, Councillor John Foley, garnered 5,899 first preferences and came close to unseating Moloney.
With only one Soldier of Destiny in Offaly, Foley decided to run as an Independent, and will draw votes from Fianna Fáil.
The wind is at Fine Gael’s back. Laois-based Charlie Flanagan, son of Oliver J, is expected to top the poll. Fine Gael is running four candidates instead of three this time. It is an indication of the party’s new-found confidence that Flanagan has a Laois-based running-mate, Councillor John Moran, for the first time.
Fine Gael is seen as virtually certain to win a seat in Offaly, with either Councillor Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy or Councillor Liam Quinn replacing Olwyn Enright, who is not standing.
There was a bitter internal row over the Labour selection process. Party members walked out at the December convention because of HQ’s choice of former Leinster Express editor John Whelan despite four other nominations.
A recent poll put Whelan ahead of Sinn Féin councillor Brian Stanley. Both are Laois-based and Whelan is a first-time candidate. Stanley received 3,656 first-preference votes in 2007 and is seen as a strong contender.
Liam Dumpleton, a journalist on local radio who sought the Labour nomination, has left the party to stand as an Independent.
Independents and candidates from smaller parties include Portlaoise-based Rotimi Adebari from Nigeria, Ireland’s first black mayor.
Rebel cleric Michael Cox, who “ordained” singer Sinéad O’Connor as “Mother Bernadette Mary” in 1999, is standing on a platform that includes renegotiation of the EU-IMF loans.
Others include ex-Progressive Democrat councillor Eddie Fitzpatrick; Councillor John Leahy; John Bracken, who ran in 2007; and James Fanning, a member of a well-known Birr printing family.
LAOIS OFFALY: 5 SEATS
OUTGOING TDS:Brian Cowen, Taoiseach (FF), Olwyn Enright, (FG, retiring), Sean Fleming (FF). Charles Flanagan (FG), John Moloney, Minister of State for Disability Issues and Mental Health (FF)
CANDIDATES: FF - Barry Cowen, Sean Fleming, John Moloney; FG - Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy, Charlie Flanagan, John Moran, Liam Quinn; Lab - John Whelan; Green- Christopher Fettes ; SF - Brian Stanley; United Left Alliance - Ray Fitzpatrick; Independent/Others - Rotimi Adebari, John Boland, John Bracken, Michael Cox, Liam Dumpleton, James Fanning, Eddie Fitzpatrick, John Foley, John Leahy, Fergus McDonnell.
LOCAL ISSUES: Numbers. The Live Register in Tullamore for January is at its highest since the recession began. Repossession of homes because of inability to pay their mortgages. Shortage of outside investment to create jobs.
VERDICT: FF- 2; FG - 2; SF - 1.
