DEADLOCK CONTINUES between the Egyptian regime and pro-democracy protesters calling for the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak. According to an informed source, Mubarak has already handed power over to his chosen successor, Vice-President Omar Suleiman.
Paradoxically, however, Mubarak remains an essential fixture. On one hand, the constitution has been designed to make Mubarak, as president, the sole source of constitutional legitimacy.
The choice Egypt faces on the legal plane is, therefore, to abide by the current constitution or adopt a “revolutionary” approach.
If Mubarak resigns now, the parliamentary speaker would assume temporary powers and a presidential election would be held within 60 days. Candidates would be severely restricted by the constitution.
Amendments can be proposed only by the president or one-third of the members of parliament and must be debated for 60 days and approved by two-thirds. The vice-president is not empowered to either propose amendments or dissolve parliament. Consequently, Suleiman and key members of the new government argue that Mubarak and his National Democratic Party (NDP) must manage the transition to a new regime. The pro-democracy camp rejects that argument and does not trust the Mubarak camp to organise the transition.
Egyptians wedded to a legitimate transfer of authority admit the country is facing a “constitutional crisis”. However, protesters in Tahrir (Liberation) Square in Cairo and on the streets of the country’s major cities do not seem to care about constitutional legalities.
Since the “revolutionary” approach poses significant risks, some of Egypt’s best legal minds are searching for a way to deal with the situation.
On the other hand, the source observed, “If Mubarak goes, the regime goes.” Therefore, the regime has to carefully manage his exit. The military is still backing the regime in spite of the challenge from hundreds of thousands of Egyptians demanding not only Mubarak’s removal but also an end to the rule of the deeply entrenched politico-military-mercantile caste that has dominated Egypt for decades. The power of this caste, he observed, has been built up “layer by layer” throughout the country.
Furthermore, its members, including senior military officers, are “determined to defend their interests”. He said: “The army is ready to make concessions” such as backing Arab League secretary general Amr Moussa as a potential presidential candidate who is acceptable to Washington.
The United States, asserted the source, is “desperate to find someone to deal with” in the pro-democracy camp. For the moment, the real powers in the street remain the “Twitter and Facebook” youths who sparked the “uprising” – whose spokesman seems to be Nobel laureate Mohamed ElBaradei – and the Muslim Brotherhood.
“So far, there have been no real negotiations” between regime and opposition, he said. ElBaradei did not personally attend Sunday’s meeting with Suleiman but sent a representative while Brotherhood spokesmen reiterated the opposition demand for Mubarak to stand down before there could be substantive talks.
Meanwhile, the regime is trying to “abort” the demonstrations by wearing out supporters and by instructing the army to “defuse protests in a soft way” and to “inch-by-inch” take back Tahrir, the bastion of the movement. Protest organisers have dubbed this a “week of reliance” and are trying to maintain a substantial presence in the square.
According to the source, the sides say: “We are staying, you are staying . . . We Egyptians have no notion of time. We have 7,000 years of history . . . The regime says [to the protesters], “You can bark in [your] Hyde Park corner.” The protesters say to the regime, “Sooner or later the Sphinx will join us in Tahrir Square.”