`Some," according to the traditional rhyme, " . . . by a painful elbow, hip or knee, will shrewdly guess what weather's like to be."
The reference is to the pervasive notion, common since ancient times, that the level of discomfort felt by sufferers from arthritis and related ailments is greatly influenced by the prevailing meteorological conditions. And as the rhyme suggests, there are those who go so far as to say that the relationship is sufficiently precise to allow arthritis victims to predict weather changes by their symptoms.
Strangely enough, scientific evidence on the topic, as distinct from anecdotal information, is sparse and inconclusive. The findings, therefore, of a study carried out in 1997 in Australia, make very interesting reading.
The research was undertaken by Dr Helen Aikman in the city of Bendigo, Victoria, and sought to relate the pain and rigidity experienced by sufferers from osteoarthritis or rheumatoid arthritis to air temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation.
Twenty-five patients were involved, and they were asked to keep a detailed record of the severity of their symptoms several times a day over an extended period.
The strongest relationship was found to be with the time of day rather than the weather. There was clear evidence that both pain and rigidity were worst at breakfast time, least in the middle of the day, and increased again towards evening. After that, temperature was found to be the most important element, with pain and rigidity noticeably worse with low air temperatures.
High relative humidity produced a similar effect, and variations in the level of discomfort were just about detectable with changes in barometric pressure. The speed of the wind, and whether it happened to be raining or not, were found to be irrelevant.
Patients who participated in the study were told, of course, that the information they gave would be used to find out more about their ailment, but they were not made aware at the time that the weather was the focus of attention. Had they known this, they might, quite inadvertently, have distorted the results.
Afterwards, however, they were asked by questionnaire how they perceived their condition to be affected by the weather - and the findings are almost as interesting as those of the research itself.
Ninety-two per cent were of the view that their symptoms were affected by the weather, and over half those interviewed rated the influence as "frequent" or "severe". And 48 per cent said they could predict the weather by their symptoms - but no attempt was made to verify their claims.