Pro-business party chief has been successfully focusing on workers' fears of slipping into poverty, writes DEREK SCALLY
IF ELECTIONS were a logical business, Germany’s Free Democrats (FDP) should have fought this campaign in sackcloth and ashes.
Like its neighbours, Germany is creaking under an economic crisis that most people blame on light-touch, neo-liberal financial rules.
Ahead of Sunday’s general election, however, the liberal, pro-business FDP is holding steady with 12 per cent support.
After years as the bridesmaid of German politics, FDP leader Guido Westerwelle (47) is now the likely king- or queen-maker of Germany’s next coalition government.
So how has he kept his party’s market-liberal ship afloat in what should have been choppy waters? The simple answer: rebranding.
In the eastern city of Magdeburg, as on other campaign stops, Westerwelle tried to convince voters he was not the head of a party for rich businesspeople but a “neo-social” advocate of the put-upon middle classes.
That’s something that goes down well in an era of taxpayer-funded bank bailouts – and helps him avoid explaining why his party opposes limiting manager bonuses and more strict rules for banks.
Instead of waiting to be made the neo-liberal scapegoats for the crisis, the FDP acted fast to give voters other worries.
Westerwelle has tapped into German angst about what is known as soziale abstieg or social relegation: if one isn’t already on the slippery slope to poverty now, one might be very soon.
A recent poll showed that one in two Germans earning up to €2,000 a month and one in five Germans earning up to €3,500 say they are afraid of social relegation.
Westerwelle’s solution: relief for the middle-classes, less red tape for small and medium-sized businesses, and a cut in government subsidies to finance a simpler fiscal system with tax breaks benefiting families with children.
“That is more social than any red flag on May 1st,” he said in Magdeburg. “We believe it has to be more worthwhile to get up in the morning than not to bother.”
This message has played well with the FDP’s well-heeled voter base in western states, but it might not have been an easy sell in Germany’s east, blighted by unemployment. Yet with rhetorical skill and self-deprecating humour, Westerwelle soon had the crowd on Magdeburg’s market square nodding in agreement.
“For the middle classes, Westerwelle’s a ray of hope on the horizon that people don’t just have to work to pay taxes,” said Klaus Schneider, a middle-aged businessman in a striking plaid sports jacket. “Westerwelle has credibility with voters because he sticks to pre-election promises. People remember how he stayed out of government with the Social Democrats [SPD] in 2005.”
“I’ve known Guido for 20 years and he’s really grown into the role of leader,” said Marlis Franke, a middle-aged supporter. “He’s like a young Genscher.”
Hans-Dietrich Genscher is a name you hear a lot in these parts. The former FDP foreign minister who played a key role in the events of 1989 was born in the nearby city of Halle. Though in his 80s, he has come out on the campaign trail as Westerwelle’s mentor, with considerable success.
Genscher’s backing, new, dark suits and a few foreign policy speeches have shaken off Westerwelle’s reputation as a political joker.
“Genscher had no clue about foreign policy when he started, nor could he speak English,” said Prof Eberhard Sandschneider of the German Council on Foreign Relations. “And look at what a foreign minister he became.”
The FDP leader has dismissed, too, concerns that his homosexuality would be an issue as Germany’s chief diplomat, five years after his first public appearance with his partner.
As his campaign wound up, Westerwelle rejected coalition advances from the SPD to stake his political future on a centre-right coalition with Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU).
“It’s a risk to close off coalition options, just as it was to tailor the party entirely to his personality,” said political scientist Dr Gero Neugebauer.
“If those risks don’t pay off, if things end in a grand coalition for instance, Mr Westerwelle will be looking for work elsewhere.”