NORTH KOREA: North Korea's declaration that it possesses nuclear weapons does not necessarily mean it has a tested nuclear weapons system that can be deployed, defence analysts said yesterday.
"It is one thing to talk about having a weapon and it's a different matter to talk about a complete nuclear weapons system," said Dr Baek Seung-joo, who heads research on the North Korean military at South Korea's Institute for Defence Analyses.
North Korea has test-fired short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, but its missile programme has been marred by accidents and the accuracy of the weapons has been questioned.
The reliability of the North's boast that it has nuclear weapons does not translate to its possession of a genuine and certified weapons system, which requires tests, Dr Baek said.
"It is questionable whether North Korea has the capability to mount a reliable nuclear warhead," Dr Baek said.
Prof Gary Samore, director of studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Britain, said those looking at the issue are pretty confident that North Korea has enough plutonium to build a small number of weapons.
But he cautioned that nothing was confirmed regarding the North's nuclear capabilities.
"Most people in the field assume that North Korea can deliver a simple, implosion weapon by missile with a range that could hit Tokyo," Prof Samore said, adding that no one was certain if North Korea had actually produced nuclear weapons.
"They want us to believe that they are capable of it," he said in a telephone interview.
North Korea is believed to have one or two nuclear weapons and possibly more than eight.
South Korean officials have said North Korea possessed nuclear weapons but assessments varied on whether they could be deployed.
The North's nuclear weapons are likely fuelled by plutonium, which it has produced at a five-megawatt reactor.
More than 8,000 spent plutonium fuel rods, which can be processed for use as weapons material, have been moved from a storage site since the North expelled international inspectors in December 2002. North Korea has said the fuel rods have been used to boost its "nuclear deterrent".
According to an August 2003 paper from the US Congressional Research Service, Pyongyang could turn the nuclear material from those fuel rods into four to six nuclear weapons in about six months.
Earlier this week, US officials said an envoy sent by President Bush to China had delivered a message to China's leaders about information suggesting that Libya had obtained uranium hexafluoride from North Korea. The envoy made the case that this underscored the need to restart six-party talks.
This processed uranium can be fed into nuclear centrifuges and enriched into bomb fuel.
Other US officials said last week that scientific tests on the nuclear material surrendered by Libya have led US intelligence agencies and scientists to conclude that North Korea sold processed uranium to Tripoli.
The US says it has evidence the North has a uranium-enrichment programme. Pyongyang denies it has one.
Defence analysts say several blast tests were required to determine the reliability of a nuclear weapons system, and there was no evidence that the North has conducted such a test.
South Korea's defence ministry said in a paper issued last week that the North was suspected of having conducted a blast test but there was no conclusive evidence.
North Korea fired a missile in 1998 over Japan and into the Pacific Ocean. The Taepodong 1 is believed to have a range of up to 2,500 km. North Korea is also thought to be developing missiles capable of reaching the western US.