An exit poll conducted throughout Northern Ireland during yesterday's voting in the Assembly elections indicates a rise in support for the SDLP while the Ulster Unionist Party falls back significantly.
The poll, based on a sample of approximately 1,600 people up to 8.00 last night, gives the SDLP the highest level of support of any party at 24 per cent of first-preference votes with the UUP second at 20 per cent, Democratic Unionists third at 18 per cent and Sinn Fein fourth at 14 per cent.
The poll was conducted by Ulster Marketing Surveys on behalf of The Irish Times and RTE's Prime Time programme at 124 polling stations throughout the 18 Northern Ireland constituencies. The accuracy level is plus or minus three per cent.
Party percentages were as follows (1996 Forum results in brackets): SDLP 24 (21.4); UUP 20 (24.2); DUP 18 (18.8); Sinn Fein 14 (15.5); Alliance 8 (6.5); UK Unionist Party 3 (3.7); Progressive Unionist Party 3 (3.5); Independent Unionists 3 (-).
The level of support for the SDLP reflects the widely-held view that the party has benefited from its high-profile role in the negotiations leading to the Belfast Agreement.
The fall in UUP support sounds an ominous note for the party leader, Mr David Trimble. If reflected in the final count it would be one of the party's worst showings in its history.
However, senior UUP sources insisted last night that they "fully expected to get about 24 per cent" of first-preference votes. They also predicted a high level of transfers from the loyalist parties and from UUP members standing as anti-Agreement independent candidates.
Senior SDLP sources speculated that Mr Trimble might now need the support of Alliance members to become First Minister, which would require Alliance to register as "unionists" in the Assembly rather than its preferred designation of "non-aligned".
Turnout in the elections yesterday was believed to be down considerably on last month's referendum, due to a combination of bad weather and other factors.
Periodic rainfall throughout the day was keeping voters at home. There was reported to be a late surge in the evening which was expected to boost the final figure.
However, it was widely expected that the turnout would be well below the 81 per cent figure in the May 22nd referendum.
Forecasts of 70 per cent or more, earlier in the week, were considered unduly optimistic. The true turnout was expected to be closer to the 67 per cent figure of the May 1997 elections to Westminster.
The count begins today at 9 a.m. at eight centres throughout Northern Ireland. But the final result may not be available until tomorrow and the possibility that some counts might take even longer cannot be ruled out.