ANALYSISFianna Fáil is playing a wait-and-see game on Taoiseach's evidence, writes Harry McGee
THE VOLTE face of Bertie Ahern's former secretary Gráinne Carruth at the Mahon tribunal last week - allied to the very public trauma she endured in the witness box - has undeniably caused political damage to the Taoiseach.
But analysis of the available evidence and the prevailing mood within Fianna Fáil, does not support the proposition that a heave against Bertie Ahern is imminent.
When sounded out, most Fianna Fáil TDs and Senators will admit Carruth's evidence has been more unsettling than any evidence heard until now.
"Her evidence did not come across well for [ Ahern]. The impression was a sad one, that she was left hanging out to dry," said a senior TD who would be seen as an Ahern supporter.
Most TDs and Senators who say he must step down sooner rather than later have done so anonymously. No one has publicly voiced concern about his fitness to lead and only four councillors have publicly broken the silence: two in Co Louth, one in Co Kerry; and one in Dún Laoghaire- Rathdown.
Another revealing phenomenon has has been the unavailability of senior Ministers for comment over the past week. All the running has been left to four junior Ministers.
The reasons for this are partly coincidental. It is the Easter recess and some Ministers have been away. The Minister who carries most political ballast, Tánaiste Brian Cowen, was on holidays in Vietnam until yesterday.
However, the contemplative silence from Ministers is in marked contrast to the concerted attacks they launched on the tribunal following Ahern's evidence last December.
There is no prevailing view about why this is so. Some say that Ministers are under strict instructions to follow the dictum from Séamus Heaney's poem North: "Whatever you say, say nothing". Others put it that Ministers no longer want to be seen supporting Ahern in public or want to curry favour with Cowen. However the notion of a fault-line appearing in the ministerial ranks just doesn't stack up.
That said, there is no denying the incremental increase in anxiety throughout the party. According to some TDs this is a problem of Ahern's own making. On at least six occasions inside and outside Dublin Castle, he has purported give a full account of his personal finances. Invariably though new details have later emerged about previously unknown amounts, lodgements, or accounts - all of which have required further explanations.
Kilkenny Minister of State for Trade John McGuinness touched on this last Friday when he asked if Ahern's RTÉ interview with Bryan Dobson in September 2006 had been the best course of action
Another Minister of State, speaking privately, put it more succinctly: "How can you go out and defend him to the hilt when you are not sure what's coming down the track?"
It must be also be pointed out that the clear majority of Fianna Fáil TDs and Senators who have responded to Carruth's evidence remain steadfast in their support and have said so publicly. Privately, yes, they accept the Taoiseach may find himself in grave difficulty if his explanation for the £15,500 turns out to be implausible, but they point out that we have not got there yet.
Those expressing concern within the parliamentary party belong to a number of loose groupings. Firstly, there are the members of the "awkward squad", a very small group opposed to Ahern's leadership irrespective of recent events.
The second is large and is made up of supporters of Brian Cowen.
There is a large overlap here because many see themselves as natural Cowen supporters and also as natural Bertie supporters, and therefore remain loyal.
The closest acolytes of Cowen, however, are impatient for him to become leader, but he has given no indication as to when he will make a move. Furthermore, as of now his comments of support and confidence following Ahern's last tribunal appearance in February stand.
The final group of parliamentarians is the closest to a weather vane. This comprises moderates and the undecided - youngish TDs in their first and second terms and others who are not senior ministers. Quite a few of this group have privately expressed deep concern about the latest disclosures - and have placed them at the more serious end of the scale - but most have adopted a wait and see attitude.
Moreover, a figure who is particularly representative of moderate Fianna Fáil, Pat Carey, reflected these concerns publicly on Sunday when he described last week's evidence as "disturbing" but also said he would wait until Ahern gave his evidence.
Another trend that may be potentially worrying for Fianna Fáil is the growing nervousness of councillors, given the proximity of next year's local elections.
Ultimately, the Taoiseach's ambition of remaining in control until he reaches 60 years of age will be determined by future events, three in particular coming up over the next 15 months.
He will need to give a credible account of the £15,500 to the tribunal in May. He then has to steer the Lisbon Treaty referendum through and, if he survives all that, he needs to make sure Fianna Fáil avoids an electoral reversal at next year's local and European elections.