EUROPEAN DIARY:Nothing is certain, but democratic elections in Egypt might not produce a result that would be welcome to the West
TUNISIA’S new central bank chief, Mustapha Kamel Nabli, was in Davos last weekend to tell the world his country was “back in business”. Only a fortnight after president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali was forced from power, Nabli seemed surprised to find himself in a chilly ski resort chronicling revolution in his homeland. He’s not the only one.
The scene is fluid. As protest sweeps Egypt in the wake of the Tunisian uprising, the intensity of clamour for change and its rapid escalation raise questions as to whether a swathe of authoritarian regimes from north Africa to the Middle East face imminent demise.
That’s impossible to predict with certainty right now, but the unrest in Egypt raises tricky questions for European leaders.
The collapse of Ben Ali’s corrupt regime caught everyone off guard. In Tunis, fulcrum of the rebellion, the story goes that the French embassy was still predicting his survival in the hours before he fled to Saudi Arabia. That Paris supported him to the last aptly symbolises Europe’s tolerant attitude to unsavoury strongmen in its own back yard and a woeful misreading of conditions on the ground.
As much as they might like to hold their noses at the lack of democracy and the suppression of dissent, European leaders have long looked the other way for the sake of regional stability and their own economic interest. A reluctance to overtly interfere in their neighbours’ affairs only consolidated support for the status quo. So too did the sense that authoritarian power is an effective bulwark against Islamist extremism.
As Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak teeters, however, western leaders of all hues find themselves having to respond to a chaotic clamour for change from within. This cannot be ignored. Sustained instability in a strategically important country of 80 million people could have dire consequences inside its frontiers and beyond them.
Under Mubarak, Egypt is one of only two Arab states at peace with Israel. He has been an important partner in the ailing Middle East peace process, a stop-start affair that never seems far from failure. The force of protest from his own people, however, has seen Mubarak’s international support drain away.
As US secretary of state Hillary Clinton called yesterday for an orderly transition – an expression her allies on the other side of the Atlantic would soon use – the tone of Europe’s response was set by Britain, France and Germany when they jointly appealed for free and fair elections.
When EU foreign ministers gathered yesterday in Brussels, there was scant surprise when they too called for elections. Their conclusions bear some scrutiny. While they represent an effort not to push the situation too far, it is also true that Europe does not want to find itself on the wrong side of history if the regime falls.
Thus there was no direct demand for Mubarak to stand down forthwith. For political reasons, that is deemed inappropriate. However, the call for the legitimate grievances of ordinary Egyptians to be recognised for “an orderly transition to a broad-based government” and “essential democratic reforms” requires but a minimum of interpretation.
Having given succour to the man and his regime for decades, Europe and the US now want to avoid being seen to do so. How their previous support for Mubarak casts them in the eyes of the protesters can only be guessed at.
The desire to avoid the emergence of a power vacuum is palpable. Crucial here is the sense that Egypt has entered a new phase whose outcome is very difficult to predict. While diplomats say the clampdown on the internet means it is more difficult to receive information from within the country, television pictures show that fear of the regime has largely vanished.
What remains largely unknown, however, is sentiment within the Egyptian armed forces and the force of any American entreaties to its generals behind the scenes. Clinton has praised the army’s restraint. Private contact seems to be a given.
Unclear too is the potential strength of Mubarak’s enemies in the Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood, banned but largely tolerated, is viewed with some suspicion in European capitals. In addition, questions have asked about the democratic credentials of some of those around Mohamed ElBaradei, the Nobel laureate who has emerged as the leading voice of opposition in Cairo.
There were warnings yesterday when foreign ministers met that elections might not necessarily produce an outcome the West would welcome.
Looming large is the question of whether events in Tunisia and Egypt represent a “Berlin Wall moment” for the Arab world. In that context, worries centre on Algeria and Libya.
While this is a huge concern in Europe’s foreign ministries, the ministers themselves seem determined for the moment to deal with Egypt on a step-by-step basis.
They will live with the consequences for some time to come. Tense. Very tense.
