EUROPEAN POLICY:EUROPEAN OFFICIALS are concerned that the declaration of a no-fly zone over Libya or any other military intervention may inflame anti-western opinion in the Arab world.
Amid considerable uncertainty about the true state of affairs in the country, senior figures say there is little prospect at present of any military campaign to oust Muammar Gadafy. “That would put us suddenly in a very delicate position with many Arab countries,” a high-level official said in Brussels.
However, the official said contingency plans for the provision of “military assistance” to humanitarian relief efforts are being made in case the violence in the country escalates drastically.
Without specifically mentioning Iraq, the official said history showed an adverse reception to previous western interventions to change the government of a sovereign state. “We’re not talking about any military action at the moment.”
The official was speaking ahead of a foreign ministers’ meeting today and an emergency summit tomorrow at which the EU leaders will take stock of the unrest in north Africa and the Middle East. Nato defence ministers are also meeting today in Brussels.
EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton wants European leaders to adopt an incentive-based approach to aid for the region, linking financial assistance to democratic reforms.
“Those partners that go further and faster with reforms should be able to count on greater support from the EU,” she told the European Parliament.
While acknowledging divergent opinion in Europe on the merits of a no-fly zone, the official said it had proven impossible thus far to achieve the international consensus required for a UN Security Council mandate. From the wider political perspective, this was by far the most preferable route to take.
The international response to the uprising in Libya is being hampered by the lack of clear information about the situation within the country and Gadafy-led military.
While Italian foreign minister Franco Frattini suggested Libyan emissaries were flying to Brussels to talk with EU and Nato officials, his claims were dismissed as “nonsense” by a European diplomat.
The diplomat said, however, that an aircraft was carrying a moderate former member of the Gadafy regime to meet Portuguese foreign minister Luis Amado in Lisbon.
Making the point that events in Libya were unfolding in a “totally different way” from the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia, the European official said the present confrontation could drag on.
Unlike in Egypt and Tunisia, the rebellion did not start in the capital city. While moving towards Tripoli, the rebellion remains outside the city so far. Whereas the Tunisian and Egyptian armies remained united as protests grew against the Ben Ali and Mubarak regimes, the Libyan army has proven to be “very much divided”.
Even though troops loyal to Gadafy appeared to have made some progress in recent days in their efforts to repel the uprising, the official said they were “still on the defensive”. The situation remained complicated and it was still difficult to assess the true strength of the pro-Gadafy forces, a challenge complicated by close ties between the military and the tribal system in the country.
Further uncertainty surrounds the reach of any al-Qaeda faction in Libya and the extent to which Muslim radicals are exerting their influence in Benghazi, centre of the rebellion. The city was regarded as a “breeding ground for radicalism”, the official said.
Saying the European authorities recognised states and not governments, he said it was not open to the EU to recognise the rebel authorities in Libya.
In a heated debate at the parliament in Strasbourg, MEPs lined up to call for the EU to recognise the National Libyan Council (NLC) and to condemn the feting the Gadafy regime had by European leaders. Ms Ashton said, however, that she had no mandate to recognise the rebel government.
Mahmoud Jebril, head of the NLC’s newly formed crisis committee, called for recognition of the council and said Gadafy had lost any legitimacy once he embarked on “genocide” against his people.
Liberal group leader Guy Verhofstadt called on the EU “to neutralise as quickly as possible Gadafy’s capacity to kill his citizens”.