A REPORT on security challenges to the EU will bluntly warn the union's summit next week that Europe could face conflict with Russia over access to energy reserves in the Arctic and a dangerous surge in immigration due to the impact of climate change.
And the report warns that the EU must address the reality that fragile states in Africa, Asia and the Middle East will be much worse off due to severe food and water shortages, which are likely to spark regional conflicts and humanitarian disasters.
The warnings are contained in the report, Climate Change and International Security, from the EU's foreign policy chief Javier Solana and the commission to the EU leaders' meeting next week in Brussels.
It argues that climate change threatens to "overburden states and regions which are already fragile and conflict prone" and urges a radical rethink of EU policies to better protect its own political and security interests.
The paper warns that competition over water and food supplies will fuel existing conflicts in Africa and intensify political instability in the Middle East where two-thirds of the Arab world rely on water sources outside their borders.
Sea level rises, changes in the monsoon rains and a decrease in melt water from the Himalayas threaten three billion people in south Asia. In North Africa and the Sahel, drought, water scarcity and land overuse could lead to the loss of 75 per cent of arable, rain-fed land. By 2050 five million people in the Nile Delta could be affected by rising sea levels while climate change is already having a major impact on the conflict in and around Darfur, says the report. It warns that by 2020 "there will be millions of 'environmental' migrants".
Europe is also already facing challenges to its security and economic interests in the Arctic due to the rapid melting of the polar ice caps. Increased accessibility to the enormous hydrocarbon resources in the Arctic is transforming the geo-strategic dynamics of the region with consequences for Europe's security interests, the report says.
"The resulting new strategic interests are illustrated by the recent planting of the Russian flag under the North Pole. There is an increasing need to address the growing debate over territorial claims and access to new trade routes by different countries which challenge Europe's ability to effectively secure its trade and resource interests in the region," the report argues. And it recommends paying special consideration to the EU's long-term relationship with Russia and the creation of an EU "Arctic policy".
The report concludes that the Law of the Sea may also have to be strengthened to cope with an expected increase in maritime disputes as new sea routes open, coastlines recede and some territories become submerged due to rising sea levels.
It also highlights the need for multilateral institutions such as the G8 and the UN to address the growing security and political risks caused by climate change. This could help to tackle the likely growth in the "politics of resentment", whereby states hurting the most from climate change will resent heavy polluting states. "The potential rift not only divides north and south but there will also be a south-south dimension particularly as the Chinese and Indian share of global emissions rises," it says.
The report also recommends building up EU states' civil and military capabilities to respond to humanitarian crises, reviewing the EU budget for these efforts, and enhancing the union's cooperation with fragile countries by providing them with technology transfers and more support.