EUROPEAN DIARY:Overwhelmed by a wave of protests, we have to juggle anxieties about fleeing migrants with our belief in democracy and human rights, writes ARTHUR BEESLEY
MUAMMAR GADAFY’S murderous backlash against Libyan protesters highlights yet again the difficulty in formulating a unified European response to trouble in Europe’s own back yard.
When the Tunisian president, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, fled to Saudi Arabia last month, the question was asked whether the Tunisian uprising heralded a “1989 moment” in the Arab world.
With protesters on the streets of Algeria, Morocco, Iran, Yemen and a clutch of other countries, that could well be so.
Mubarak is gone. Gadafy may be next. British foreign secretary William Hague suggested in Brussels last evening that he might be en route to Venezuela. But no one really seemed to know, something which underscored in plain terms the dearth of clear information from Tripoli. In the present case, the normal diplomatic channels simply do not exist.
The Libyan scene changes by the hour, with scarcely a moment to draw breath.
More and more stories emerge of appalling violence, fatalities in their hundreds, army and diplomatic defections, internet and mobile phone blackouts, airborne bomb attacks on protesters, besieged cities, burnt-out police stations, ransacked government offices. Again and again, the sense is reinforced of the sheer unpredictability of the maelstrom unleashed by one man’s desperate act of self-immolation in Tunisia.
Divining where all this might end is exceptionally difficult. What we do know, however, is that Europe has entered a new phase of its relationship with a swathe of autocratic countries from the North African rim right into the Middle East and the Gulf. Dictatorial strongmen throughout the region have reason to quake, their authority questioned more with every protest cry.
For Europe, keeping pace with events has proved quite a challenge. Wealthy, democratic countries are afraid to call for regime change in these autocratic states, but also afraid to be caught on the wrong side of history. The protest movements have exposed divergent national interests at the heart of the grand effort to unify European foreign policy.
France badly missed the bus in Tunis. Everyone was caught off guard by Egypt. As Gadafy teeters, he has tried to play the migration card to win time with his European critics. The reason for this is clear: Italy’s exposure as an entry gate for thousands of migrants fleeing turmoil in North Africa.
About 5,500 migrants arrived from Tunisia in the immediate aftermath of the rebellion, many of them travelling by dilapidated boat to the Italian island of Lampedusa.
There was a lull for a short period but the figures are climbing again. The EU border agency, Frontex, established a special mission at the weekend to help the Italians. While the European Commission insists it cannot say how many migrants might try to enter the EU if the floodgates opened, well-versed officials in certain member states say the figure could be as large as 750,000.
This was the backdrop to Gadafy’s warning to Hungary’s EU presidency that Libya would suspend co-operation with Europe on immigration if it kept making statements in support of pro-democracy protest.
To an extent, such entreaties appeared to have the desired effect. Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, by now a figure of ridicule on the European scene, suggested he would rather not “bother” his old pal Gadafy.
His foreign minister, Franco Frattini, warned of a self-proclaimed “Islamic Arab Emirate” on the EU’s borders and said Europe should not attempt to “export” its democratic values to other societies.
Thus, even in the face of machine-gun fire against unarmed protesters, European foreign ministers spent time yesterday to craft a “compromise text” for their declaration on Libya. This was to listen to Italian concerns – and those of Malta, it must be said – over the threat of being overwhelmed by migrants. Italy’s long-established trade links with Tripoli – worth some €11 billion per annum – are a further factor.
In the end, Europe duly condemned repression of civilian protesters in Libya. But not before Italy and Malta sought unsuccessfully to include a reference to the country’s sovereign integrity.
The scene is volatile. Notwithstanding Europe’s halting response to the rebellions in Tunisia and Egypt, the union’s evolving policy is now directed towards the promotion of free and fair elections, increased financial assistance from the European Investment Bank and support for civic society groups.
The core aim at this stage is to make aid conditional on the achievement of certain benchmarks. After decades of authoritarian rule, however, overnight success is not necessarily a given. To expect a smooth “transition” to democracy would be fanciful.
No one saw these events coming. That helps explains why the response is proving so difficult.