POLITICAL HAGGLING over the selection of the first full-time president of the European Council and new foreign policy chief is set to culminate within days as EU leaders seek to forge a consensus on the appointments.
Meanwhile, Taoiseach Brian Cowen is considered increasingly likely to choose former minister Máire Geoghegan-Quinn for Ireland’s seat on the incoming EU Commission.
Although Belgian prime minister Herman Van Rompuy remains to the fore in the race for the presidency, diplomatic sources stressed last night that the matter was still unresolved.
While EU leaders will informally discuss the two jobs at a special dinner tonight at which world leaders will celebrate the fall of the Berlin Wall 20 years ago, they will wait until a special summit in Brussels to make the appointments.
Swedish prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, current holder of the six-month revolving presidency of the EU, has tentative plans to convene the summit on Thursday. This date remains unconfirmed, however, implying the deal is not yet done.
Mr Reinfeldt has been discreetly canvassing the views of EU leaders since Czech ratification last week of the Lisbon Treaty, which creates the two jobs.
At issue is whether EU leaders opt for a globally recognised politician such as former British prime minister Tony Blair or a low-key figure who acts more as a chairman of European government leaders.
Mr Van Rompuy, who stands in the latter category, emerged as a leading contender following unattributed reports in French and Belgian media that he had won the support of German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Nicolas Sarkozy.
While Mr Sarkozy has said that he and Dr Merkel backed a common candidate for the post, political and other sources say Dutch prime minister Jan-Peter Balkenende is still in contention.
Much depends on the stance of British prime minister Gordon Brown, who has promoted his predecessor Mr Blair heavily.
With Mr Blair’s candidacy all but crushed by deep hostility within his own political family in Europe, attention centres now on whether Mr Brown will back another candidate in return for the appointment of his foreign secretary David Miliband to the foreign policy post. Although Mr Miliband is at present held to be the favourite, there are increasing doubts about his willingness to accept an offer of the post.
An alternative scenario, mooted over the weekend by informed sources, is that Britain’s former EU commissioner and current business secretary Peter Mandelson would return to Europe in the guise of foreign policy chief.
He would not be able to do this without the approval of Mr Brown, who has been leaning on him for crucial political support at a vulnerable time in his premiership.
Mr Cowen has said little in public about the contenders for Ireland’s commissionership. Although the appointment was not on a draft agenda for tomorrow’s Cabinet meeting that was circulated on Friday, well-placed sources expect the Taoiseach to finalise the appointment soon.
Ms Geoghegan-Quinn, currently a member of the European Court of Auditors, is considered favourite partly because of efforts by European Commission president José Manuel Barroso to increase female representation on the EU executive.
Informed political sources say that appointing Ms Geoghegan-Quinn would increase Ireland’s prospects of securing a powerful portfolio, defying expectation of a lesser post in light of the rejection of the Lisbon Treaty in the first Irish referendum.
An additional advantage for Mr Cowen, who is unlikely to look within the Cabinet due to the tight Dáil arithmetic, is that the departure of Ms Geoghegan-Quinn would free up a vacancy for him to fill on the Court of Auditors.