FRANCE:TENSION BETWEEN Europe and Russia over the crisis in Georgia rose yesterday when French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner for the first time evoked the possibility of sanctions against Russia; his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov dismissed Dr Kouchner's comments as the product of a "sick imagination", reports Lara Marlowein Paris.
Referring to the emergency meeting of the European Council that will take place in Brussels on Monday, Dr Kouchner said: "Sanctions are being considered and many other means as well."
Russia continues to occupy parts of Georgia in violation of a ceasefire accord reached on August 12th, and further angered Europe and the US by unilaterally recognising the independence of the Georgian separatist enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia on Tuesday.
"We are trying to elaborate a strong text that will show our determination not to accept [what is happening in Georgia]," Dr Kouchner said. "Of course, there are also sanctions." A few days earlier, Dr Kouchner said the EU would not discuss sanctions against Russia.
Mr Lavrov was attending a meeting of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) in Tajikistan, where Russia sought support from China and four central Asian states. He noted that Dr Kouchner has also expressed fear that Russia could invade Moldova and the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine. "To me, this outpouring demonstrates utter confusion," Mr Lavrov said.
"On the rhetorical level, the dogs have been unleashed," a French diplomat commented. "We get the impression they welcome the [verbal] escalation." A spokeswoman at the French foreign ministry stressed that the French EU presidency is not proposing sanctions, but that Paris wants "a truly open debate in the council" on Monday. France expects "certain member states" - in particular Poland and the Baltic states - "to put sanctions on the table," she said. The situation is complicated by the fact that the rival Polish president and prime minister will both attend Monday's summit, "practically a two-headed executive," a French diplomat said.
"It's more a question of suspending, freezing or slowing ongoing negotiations on the new partnership accord [with Russia], and the question of visas. I don't think we're talking about Iranian-style sanctions," the spokeswoman explained, alluding to the economic sanctions intended to impede Iran's nuclear power programme.
In other words, if the EU is able to reach agreement on a plan to punish Russia for its actions in Georgia, sanctions will be more diplomatic than economic, in part because economic sanctions would have a negative effect on Russian public opinion, a diplomat said. Negotiations on a new partnership agreement between the EU and Russia started in July, said Laure Delcourt, an expert on EU-Russia relations at the French think tank IRIS. The preceding 10-year agreement was signed in 1994 and has expired. "Relations are much more significant now," Ms Delcourt noted. "Since 2003, we've established the objectives of shared policies on economic relations, foreign policy, research and education and security."
Since the summer of 2007 Russians have benefited from fewer visa restrictions in the EU. The partnership was intended to further facilitate freedom of movement, but that is now in question.
The balance of payments between Russia and the EU is heavily skewed in Russia's favour, because 40 per cent of European natural gas imports and 25 per cent of European petrol imports come from Russia, Ms Delcourt said.
For its part, Russia relies on Europe for consumer products it cannot produce itself. "There won't be a winner and a loser [if negotiations stall]; both sides will lose," Ms Delcourt predicted.
The Russians have dramatically increased investment in Europe. Within the past two years, Ms Delcourt noted, Russia has acquired a 5 per cent stake in the European aeronautics consortium EADS. And the Russian gas company Gazprom has concluded accords with numerous European companies.
"But sanctions are unlikely to have much of an effect, except to stiffen the Russian position," Ms Delcourt said. "It certainly wouldn't incline them to change their attitude." So what could budge the Russians? "It can only come from Russia itself, the day they understand that they'll gain more in terms of influence by having a constructive position," Ms Delcourt said.
Dr Kouchner stressed the importance of Europe achieving a united stand at the summit, which will be attended by Taoiseach Brian Cowen. East European countries - and domestic political opposition in France - have accused French president Nicolas Sarkozy of negotiating a ceasefire accord that is too conciliatory towards the Russians. "The accord is good," the foreign ministry spokeswoman said. "The problem is enforcing it."
Monday's summit will doubtless reiterate strong condemnation of Russian recognition of independence for South Ossetia and Abkhazia. "If the European reaction doesn't go as far as sanctions, it will at least take certain measures and adopt a more firm position in negotiations for the new partnership accord," Ms Delcourt said.