US BASEBALL legend Yogi Berra had a famous malapropism which goes: "When you come to a fork in the road, take it." The mangled aphorism is reminiscent of the choice which faced the authorities in Northern Ireland last weekend over Drumcree.
Damned if they did and damned if they did not ban or reroute the Orange parade: that was the dilemma they faced. And since nothing bad ever happens only once in Northern Ireland, they face exactly the same dilemma next Saturday over the parade on Belfast's Ormeau Road.
Garvaghy Road residents decided they did not want a "mustering" of nationalists to support them last Sunday. But there are indications that the nationalists on Lower Ormeau will have considerable outside support when the Ballynafeigh Orange Lodge marches down to the bridge that marks the beginning of the mainly nationalist zone.
This time last year we had the loyalist revolt first and the nationalist uprising second, when the Orange march was halted at Drumcree and then let through. This time around we could have the nationalist insurrection first, because of Garvaghy Road, and the loyalist rebellion second, if the Orangemen don't get down Ormeau Road.
Alternatively, a decision to allow the march through could see a renewal of nationalist rioting, hijackings, burnings and shootings. Who would want to be either Chief Constable of the RUC or Northern Ireland Secretary?
Unfortunate and regrettable as the violence of recent days has been, so far it has been "minor league" compared with past outbreaks. The Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams has tried to keep the lid on by calling for an immediate end to "the hijacking and burning of vehicles in nationalist areas".
But the gunmen, hijackers and stone-throwers will get their second wind should another decision go against the nationalists. RUC Chief Constable, Mr Ronnie Flanagan, has indicated that his Garvaghy Road decision was influenced by the conviction that loyalists would intensify their killings of members of the Catholic community. Presumably that loyalist threat still stands.
Where does the IRA ceasefire fit into this picture? Constitutional nationalists had hoped a cessation of republican violence was about to happen but Drumcree has pushed the prospect further down the road.
Sources close to republican thinking said the argument for a ceasefire would fall on unreceptive ears at this time. An Ormeau Road decision that was perceived as anti-nationalist would make it even less likely.
The big question in republican minds is this: New Labour style differs from the Tories but has it got the same strategy of wearing down the republican movement so that the IRA goes away and the status quo remains?
Nevertheless, many in the republican movement still consider a ceasefire to be a good idea if it leads to Sinn Fein participation in all-party talks that are devoted to "substantive issues" and are not blocked by decommissioning.
On the other side of the house, it might be thought unionists would feel a sense of triumph over the Drumcree decision. The more politically-aware elements deny any such sentiment.
"A lot of people are wondering, how much of a victory this is, senior Ulster Unionist sources said. The IRA had been stirred up and once again unionists had found it impossible to assert their thoughts and beliefs without at the same boosting the fortunes of militant republicanism.
Unionists are arguing the Drumcree decision has restored a certain balance to the Northern situation. They are still smarting over the British government's move in holding talks with Sinn Fein representatives on the same day as the local elections in May.
Achieving this kind of "parity of disesteem" seems to be an essential for a successful Northern Ireland Secretary. Yesterday Mo Mowlam started the long process of rehabilitating herself with the nationalist community.
It will be an uphill struggle. Residents' groups are at best reluctant to meet her and some nationalists are calling her "Chairman Mo". And so the endless cycle of grievance, violence, counter-grievance and further violence goes on. Who was it said Northern politics was just as repetitious as the film Groundhog Day - but without the humour?