In Algeria, Yemen, Jordan and elsewhere, autocratic leaders are increasingly uneasy, writes MARY FITZGERALD, Foreign Affairs Correspondent
“COME ON, Egypt. You always like to tell us you’re Umm al-Dunya/Mother of the World. It’s time for Umm al-Thawra/ Mother of all Revolutions.”
These lines, posted by Moroccan novelist Laila Lalami on Twitter just as Egypt’s protests were gathering pace in late January, captured something of the anxious anticipation felt across the region as Arabs wondered if someone like President Hosni Mubarak, who had clung to power for three decades, could really be overthrown.
Egypt got its revolution, after 18 days that shook the Middle East, and now its example has set other Arab states from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean aflutter, knocking sclerotic regimes sideways and emboldening once-weary populations. An editorial in the Qatari daily Al-Sharqsummed it up: "The revolt is Egyptian and the joy is Arab."
It is hard to believe it has been just eight weeks since a frustrated young fruit-seller named Mohammad Bouazizi set himself on fire in the Tunisian town of Sidi Bouzid, triggering what many Arab commentators refer to as an earthquake that has toppled two powerful autocrats.
The guessing game of which country might be next throws up a multitude of possibilities, but given the speed with which Mubarak and Tunisia’s president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali fell, few are willing to predict with any certainty.
“Jordan? No, we need more time,” one friend in the Jordanian capital Amman texted on Friday evening. “My money is on Algeria.”
Rumours that Al Jazeera had transferred its TV crews from Cairo to Algiers over the weekend only served to further fuel speculation, given that wags now quip that wherever Al Jazeera turns its focus these days, revolution is sure to follow. Across the region, people have been glued to the Qatar-based satellite channel’s breathless coverage of the unfolding of a brave new Arab world.
Bordering Tunisia, where Ben Ali was ousted 30 days ago, and sharing a Mediterranean coastline with Egypt, Algeria suffers many of the ills that stoked protests in both – a huge population of bitterly disenfranchised youth, chronic unemployment and rising food prices. The latter has caused sporadic rioting since early January, with at least two lives lost in the unrest.
At the weekend thousands gathered on the streets of Algiers to demand reform, despite an official ban on protests. They called for the resignation of septuagenarian president Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who has kept a tight grip on the country since 1999, before riot police dispersed the crowd.
The demonstrators were not cowed, saying the fact people had come to the streets in defiance of the ban showed a corner had been turned. “The fear is gone,” said one protester.
Last week, Bouteflika said the state of emergency that has existed since the 1990s would be lifted “in the very near future”. The question is whether that will placate the thousands suddenly feeling empowered by what has been achieved by their peers in Egypt and Tunisia. Hardly anyone believes it will be enough.
The aftershocks from Egypt are also being felt in the Arabian peninsula, most notably almost 5,000km away in Yemen, poorest of all Arab nations.
Mindful of the possible fallout, President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who came to power around the same time as Mubarak, called an emergency meeting of security and ministerial personnel hours after the deposed Egyptian leader left Cairo on Friday. Some 5,000 Yemenis, mainly youths, rallied in the capital Sana’a the following day. In an effort to mollify a population transfixed by events in Cairo and Tunis, Saleh has allowed protests for the past four weeks and has said he would not stand again when his term expires in 2013.
Tremors are also being felt in the usually sleepy Gulf state of Bahrain. Activists there have called for protests today against King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa, who on February 11th – the day Mubarak stepped down in Egypt – announced he would give 1,000 dinars (€1,960) to each family.
In the tiny desert kingdom of Jordan, where an increasingly nervous King Abdullah sacked the prime minister and his government late last month, demonstrations of varying size have continued.
On Friday evening, a large crowd gathered outside the Egyptian embassy in Amman to celebrate Mubarak’s departure.
Ripples have also passed through Syria and Iraq, where the prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, has said he will not stand for a third term. He has also ordered three mega-generators to address electricity shortages in Baghdad.
The effects of Egypt’s uprising have not escaped non-Arab Iran, where the regime is caught between joyfully comparing the revolt to its own 1979 revolution and making sure the country does not experience a rerun of anti-government protests brutally put down in 2009.
According to reports, mobile phone communications and internet access have been disrupted in a bid to undermine protests called for today.
Satellite TV has also been jammed and news from Egypt censored.