The Tipperary South by-election result remains as difficult as ever to predict following polling yesterday to elect a TD to replace the late Mr Michael Ferris, of Labour.
Counting begins this morning in Clonmel in the fifth by-election this Government has faced. It has lost the last four. No Government has won a by-election since 1982.
Party activists believed last night that well over 50 per cent of the electorate had voted and that this might have been as high as 60 per cent in some rural areas. They expressed surprise at the number of people who had come out to vote.
It was raining yesterday morning but the weather improved and would not have been a factor in keeping people away from polling stations. Some 53,733 people are entitled to vote in the constituency.
Few activist have been prepared to predict the outcome, except to say that transfers would decide the result. However, the line-up after the first count remains unclear.
A predicted turnout of well over 50 per cent in Clonmel would seem likely to boost the Independent Mr Seamus Healy, who needs a substantial first-preference vote if he is to win the seat.
He may benefit if the vote for Fianna Fail candidate Mr Barry O'Brien was to be affected by the adverse political developments of recent days.
The vote in Clonmel was 35 per cent at 6 p.m. but had risen to 52 per cent by 8 p.m.
The campaign of the Fine Gael candidate, Senator Tom Hayes, gained momentum in the last few days and a significant transfer pattern is expected to develop between him and the Labour candidate Mrs Ellen Ferris.
According to the returning officer Ms Mary Delehanty, the result could be expected after 6 p.m. The results of the first count could be known around 3 p.m.