The havoc wreaked on world weather by the El Nino phenomenon, possibly the most significant climate event of the century, is expected to peak in the next few weeks and end in April, weather experts said yesterday.
During this time, there would be increased rainfall in southwestern US and along the Pacific coasts of Peru and Ecuador, they told a conference on El Nino-related crises.
Many countries in Asia, where February through April covers much of the dry season, were likely to have below-average rainfall, the experts said.
"Drought should continue over Indonesia and New Guinea and become more pervasive in Australia," the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre said in a paper, which included the work of scientists from the United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
"The region from the Philippines, north-eastern Kalimantan, northern Sulawesi, most parts of Indochina, Thailand, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are expected to continue to have below-average precipitation."
But south-eastern China and the western part of Sumatra could expect above average rainfall, it said.
The February 3rd to 6th meeting on El Nino, organised by the Bangkok-based Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre, was attended by climatologists, government officials and policy makers from Asia and other regions.
El Nino, an erratic weather pattern which brings climatic disruption, results from interaction between the surface layers of the ocean and the overlying atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. It occurs every three to seven years and may last for many months.
The most recent El Nino began in the spring of 1997. Its impact is expected to be stronger than that of a similar weather pattern which emerged in 1982-83, which was so far the worst on record when it caused damage exceeding $8.1 billion.
In Asia, El Nino has badly affected food production by altering weather patterns, thus affecting crops.
According to a report by the Food and Agriculture Organisation, extreme drought, triggered probably by the El Nino phenomenon, has threatened food security in the region.
In Papua New Guinea, for example, the government has declared a state of emergency as concern over the food supply increases.
The Philippines and Indonesia were also hit badly. In Thailand, prolonged drought last April to July and floods in August upset growing conditions and resulted in a reduction in food production this year. The drought affected Thai food crops, sugar cane and coffee.