ONE THING makes Mr Steve Forbes stand out from his rivals for the Republican nomination, and it's not just his flat tax proposal. He never stops smiling, he never varies his message, and he never gets rattled.
In contrast to the dourness of Senator Bob Dole, the severity of Senator Phil Gramm and the hysteria of Mr Pat Buchanan, Mr Forbes radiates enthusiasm and, optimism, and he is getting a warm response from an electorate fed up with argumentative, personalised, politics.
The multi millionaire with the goofy smile and simple message has shaken up the race for the Republican nomination at a critical moment. On Monday next the first caucus of Republican voters takes place in Iowa, and eight days later the more important New Hampshire primary will mark the official start of the race for delegates to the Republican convention. He is expected to shine in both.
Senator Dole, whose once strong lead in both states has collapsed, knows the price of failing to win New Hampshire. The 72 year old Kansas senator won Iowa in 1988 only to lose New Hampshire, and subsequently the nomination, to then Vice President George Bush.
Mr Forbes bought his way to prominence with the most costly advertising campaign in electoral history. In a four day period recently he ran 384 television advertisements in New Hampshire compared to 118 by Mr Dole. The theme was incessant. Mr Dole is a typical Washington insider; Mr Forbes is a conservative outsider.
Though many reporters see him as a hollow candidate, the earnest publisher with the Reaganesque smile is clearly the real thing for anti Washington voters who in 1992 were drawn to the independent, Mr Ross Perot, and the Republican challenger, Mr Pat Buchanan.
Try as they might, journalists cannot penetrate his nerd like persona, and it's driving them crazy, according to Howard Kurtz, a Washington Post writer and media analyst.
"The beltway press corps may have met its match," wrote Mr Kurtz yesterday. "No one - not Ted Koppel, not Larry King, not Tim Russert or several dozen lesser media stars - has been able to knock the Republican presidential candidate off his rhetorical stride." Mr Forbes refuses to play the game. He declines to proffer anecdotes or pull stunts to make him look like a regular guy.
"I had the impression I was sort of pressing the button on a human tape recorder," said Mr Koppel, after trying to elicit some personal information. If he wants to avoid answering a question, such as why he has never released his tax returns, Mr Forbes simply replies, over and over, until the interrogator is exhausted, that they should discuss the real issues. His smile never cracks.
This time four years ago the press was hammering the rising Democratic candidate, Governor Bill Clinton, with one story after another about his character. Nothing has yet appeared to damage the rise and rise of the eccentric owner of Forbes magazine, whose home is a $26 million estate in New Jersey horse country, and whose neighbours include Mr John de Lorean, Governor Christine Todd Whitman and various heirs to the Mellon, Mars and Johnson, Johnson and Merk fortunes.
His flat tax idea, however, may be his downfall. The proposal to phase out graduated tax and impose 17 per cent tax on earned income only is coming under critical scrutiny. Many experts are now saying that his proposed repeal of the long standing deduction for mortgage interest would cause a 15 per cent drop in house prices, and leave many people with houses worth less than their mortgages.
"He is what he says he is, an awkward rich kid with some ideas he truly believes in," said Ms Mandy Grunwald, media expert for the 1992 Clinton campaign. "The awkward way in which he repeats them gives him some credibility. God knows he's not slick."
Now that he has got everyone's attention, he is expanding his platform to avoid the charge that he is a one issue wonder. His aides argue that the Forbes candidacy transcends the flat tax.
The New York Times trawled through his editorials in Forbes and concluded that its owner is a compassionate conservative.
He supports supply side economics, a tough line on crime, a continued military involvement in Europe, a greater role for charities and religious organisations in society, and limits on terms of office. He opposes abortion though not zealously, isolationism, big government and race based quotas.
Among the Christian right. Mr Forbes is vulnerable for his mainstream views on such issues as abortion.
The Forbes challenge has made the Republican race volatile. Senator Dole's aides hope the rich publisher may have peaked too early. Ironically, if he does moderately well now, the media will conclude he is slipping as a viable candidate.