ON FRIDAY, the British Prime Minister travels to Dublin for the EU summit. The rest of Europe seems determined to push along the path to ever closer economic and political union. That knowledge is driving the Conservative Party's ever widening war over the European project.
Before he sets oft, Mr Major must endure a two day Commons debate. Tory Euro sceptics will pile high the pressure for a policy U turn, ruling out British participation in the proposed single currency for the lifetime of the next parliament.
In his television interview yesterday, Mr Major resolved to hold his "wait and see" line while seeking to placate his mutinous party with growing opposition to Eurofederalism. But his European partners may need to be indulgent if he is to prevail. On past evidence, Mr Major's is not necessarily the Tories' last word on Europe.
Around the summit table the partners will observe the chemistry between Mr Major and his pro European Chancellor, Mr Kenneth Clarke. In spectacular fashion the two last week opened the Tory Party faultline right inside the cabinet room. Any solid integrationist movement by Europe this weekend will fuel backbench demands that Mr Major sacrifice Mr Clarke, and make the policy switch they believe can win them the general election.
Mr Major is walking a political tightrope. The fevered atmosphere at Westminster was heightened on Friday with the partial defection of Tory MP Sir John Gorst. He has not resigned the Tory whip and might well back the government in a confidence vote.
But the government's majority will be beyond recovery come Thursday, when Labour holds the Barnsley by election. The loss of the Wirral, a contest Mr Major hopes to postpone, would leave him in a minority of one. To make matters worse, another MP, Mr Terry Dicks, is threatening to resign the Tory whip over Europe, having previously suggested he would do so over Northern Ireland.
Mr Major yesterday sought to calm Tory nerves and still excited talk of a snap election. And it is possible to get carried away by media speculation. The Wilson Callaghan government survived some three years without a working majority in the Commons. The conditions do not yet exist for Mr Tony Blair to table a no confidence motion, although the Labour leadership senses the time may be fast approaching.
Senior SDLP sources say they would not be prepared to sustain Mr Major. So if and when Labour feels able to move, the votes of the Ulster Unionists will most probably be the determining factor.
That is a core reality which will attend today's summit meeting between Mr Major and the Taoiseach in London.
Mr Bruton's visit is part of his presidential tour of European capitals ahead of next weekend's gathering in Dublin. But there will be a full Anglo Irish bilateral session. And if Mr Bruton can expect no progress in resolving Mr Major's European conflict, he is desperately anxious to revive the Northern Ireland peace process.
Irish sources say they will be "purposefully positive" in their approach to today's meeting. But their expectations are low.
In essence, Mr Bruton seeks a compromise between Sinn Fein's demand for immediate entry to multi party talks after a new ceasefire and London's demand for time in which to judge the IRA by "word and deed".
Dublin had hoped to contrive the time lag between a ceasefire and Sinn Fein entry around the Christmas/New Year break in the Stormont talks process. But effecting that fudge has been made more difficult, if not impossible, by Mr Major's unilateral statement of the British position 11 days ago. His statement did not entirely preclude the possibility.
And lingering Irish hopes were reposed in his delphic reference to Stormont talks adjourning for Christmas and resuming on a date to be determined. At the time British ministers stressed no time table had been prescribed. Weighing the evidence, the words used to describe a new ceasefire and activities on the ground could take a long or relatively short time, they said.
Mr Major appeared ambiguous on this point yesterday on the BBC. He rejected "a phoney ceasefire .. . designed to parachute Sinn Fein into talks". But he said he would "not wait too long" to decide if any second ceasefire "is going to be sustainable". Mr Major made it clear that intelligence reports, and not the passage of time, would be the determining factor.
So is it conceivable that a ceasefire now could see Sinn Fein in talks by, say, the end of January? Could Sir Patrick Mayhew avail of some speaking engagement around the middle of that month to announce his satisfaction, on the basis of all the intelligence available, that the IRA has stood down its entire operation, and so is content that Sinn Fein qualifies for entry to the talks?
There are repeated suggestions, from senior Conservatives and others, that Sir Patrick would like to answer in the affirmative. But this policy is driven and directed by 10 Downing Street. And senior unionist politicians appear confident Mr Major's answer will be "No".
Evidence of that came on Saturday night in a statement by Mr John Taylor, the deputy leader of the Ulster Unionist Party. Mr Taylor has flirted openly with Labour. But he intervened at the weekend to bolster Mr Major, saying he could see no reason in present circumstances why the UUP would oppose him in a confidence vote.
Mr Taylor, of course, can change his mind. But this confidence appears to extend to the most sceptical outside the UUP ranks. Mr Robert McCartney, the North Down MP, saw Mr Major at Westminster last week. He does not believe Mr Major will contemplate any scenario in which Sinn Fein enters the talks process while the unionist parties walk out the door. And the Prime Minister has been left in little doubt that that would be the result.
Mr McCartney would certainly be first out, closely followed by Dr Paisley and the DUP. In such circumstances, so close to an election, few doubt Mr David Trimble would also feel obliged to walk, possibly at the point of Mr Taylor's sword.
In Dublin hope springs eternal that Mr Major will take one final "risk for peace". And he has been prepared to alienate the unionists before, most notably over the Joint Framework Documents. But his government is fighting for its life. And one thing seems certain: if Mr Major chooses to disappoint the unionists now, he will have advanced the date for the general election.
In this of all seasons, even the most determined optimist will recall the maxim about turkeys not voting for an early Christmas.