Crime rates could fall to their lowest level since 1980 if the trend of the first six months of the year continues. Garda statistics based on returns from every station in the State show a 10 per cent drop in the national crime level for the six months of 1998.
The unpublished figures, seen by The Irish Times, indicate last year's 10 per cent drop in recorded crime has been sustained so far this year.
A total of 41,425 crimes has been reported since January, a drop of slightly more than 10 per cent compared to 46,241 crimes in the same period last year. The biggest drop, of 44 per cent, has been recorded in both aggravated burglaries and armed robberies.
If the trend is maintained the number of recorded crimes for 1998 could be just under 83,000, or the lowest recorded crime rate in 18 years.
In 1980 the number of recorded crimes was 72,782, jumping to almost 90,000 in 1981, and not dropping below 84,000 since then.
The Minister for Justice, Mr O'Donoghue, is expected to welcome the figures today at a graduation ceremony at the Garda College in Templemore, Co Tipperary.
Mr O'Donoghue will present Scott Medals for bravery to 15 gardai at the ceremony, which will be attended by the Garda Commissioner, Mr Pat Byrne.
Increases were recorded for three categories of crime: reported rapes up 2 per cent on 1997; false imprisonments up 15 per cent; and explosives crimes up 50 per cent, although this represents a single offence with an increase from two explosives crimes in the first six months of 1997 compared to three in the same period this year. There has been no increase in the larceny or murder rates, with 17 murders in the first six months of this year and last year.
Burglaries fell by 10 per cent and armed burglaries by 9 per cent. The number of reported larcenies from people fell by 22 per cent and thefts from vehicles by 13 per cent. However, shop larcenies fell by just 1 per cent.
Government spending on Garda overtime, policing initiatives such as the Dublin-based Operation Dochas, the work of the Criminal Assets Bureau and Garda National Drugs Unit and divisional drug units have all been cited as reasons for the continued fall in recorded crime that began in 1996. The previous year crime levels had reached their highest level when more than 100,000 were reported.
The fall is also believed to be related to the increase in treatment-centre places available to heroin addicts, mainly in Dublin, and the increase of up to 100 GPs dispensing heroin substitutes. The most recent Garda research has indicated that up to two-thirds of crime is drug-related.
Opposition politicians yesterday welcomed the reported proposals for a drug courts system to deal with non-violent offenders committing crime to feed a drug habit.
