The latest IRA ceasefire was reviewed by leading members of the organisation at a meeting in south Donegal last October. Despite opposition, mainly from Southern members, it was decided to continue with the "cessation", as it is referred to by republicans, on the proviso that progress be reviewed again by next month.
The organisation never publicly conceded that it had held one of its "general army conventions" and issued no statement that it had held any such meeting, but word spread quickly through the organisation that a convention had taken place and it was decided to continue backing Gerry Adams and his political path.
One of the main reasons that Mr Adams's case held sway was that the IRA was no longer able to prove its argument that violence worked. The period between February 1996 and July 1997, when the IRA returned to its military campaign, had been disastrous from a purely military point of view.
Dozens of important members were arrested, including three top bomb-makers who received heavy sentences in the Special Criminal Court in Dublin last week. Large amounts of arms and explosives were seized, particularly in the Republic.
Operations in Belfast were constantly intercepted by the RUC which seemed to have precise intelligence on the IRA's activities in the city. After a succession of setbacks it became apparent at the start of last summer than another ceasefire was inevitable.
Despite two huge bombs in London and Manchester the military campaign had not achieved any tangible progress. The talks process was still under way and Sinn Fein was again marginalised. The IRA convention which met in Donegal last October had little option but to concede that time had to be given to pursuing the political path again.
However, the pendulum of opinion may be swinging back towards the military wing. At the Donegal convention a number of figures, led by the organisation's quartermaster general - the man who controls the arms dumps in the Republic - voiced open opposition to the Adams line.
This opposition was mirrored on the political side by the emergence of the 32-County Sovereignty Committee whose figurehead is Bernadette Sands, the sister of the dead hunger striker, Bobby Sands. She has become the most vocal opponent of Mr Adams and his strategy.
Probably the most significant point about the 32-County group, according to Garda sources, is that it did not quit Sinn Fein like the last caucus, led by the former party president Ruairi O Bradaigh which left the party in 1986. Mr O Bradaigh's group formed itself into the tiny political group, Republican Sinn Fein (RSF) which has made no significant political gains.
The "military wing" of RSF, the Continuity IRA, has carried out a number of bombings inside Northern Ireland, the latest outside a disco in Enniskillen last month. But it is regarded as amateurish. Its membership is believed to be largely confined to north Leitrim through west Fermanagh to south Donegal.
The 32-County group is still an unknown quantity. It has effectively become a pressure group within Sinn Fein and could be more of a threat to the party leadership. If the 32-County group can assemble sufficient support it will be difficult to purge it without causing a significant schism.
The extent to which other members of Sinn Fein and the IRA support the views of the 32County Sovereignty Committee will be tested next month. Senior security sources believe that the next few weeks will be a critical time for the IRA in deciding which course to pursue.
The crunch may well come at around the time of Sinn Fein's ardfheis which is due to be held in the middle of next month. It is possible that at about the same time the political wing of the movement is openly debating its stance, the military wing will be meeting in secret to discuss its agenda.
The words and even body language of all the main players are being closely examined to see what way the movement swings. The Garda and the RUC's Special Branch intelligence and surveillance officers are understood to be working flat out to try and determine which way the IRA is heading.
So far, there are both good and bad signs, according to Garda sources.
The decision by both governments to expel Sinn Fein from the talks after the two IRA killings in Belfast has badly damaged Mr Adams's standing, it is said. There is a considerable irony in this, as it is now understood the IRA leadership sanctioned the killing of the loyalist gunman, Robert Dougan, which precipitated Sinn Fein's temporary exclusion from the talks.
It is reported that the IRA decided to shoot Dougan because of growing criticism within nationalist communities that the IRA had done nothing against the loyalist paramilitaries who shot dead nine Catholics in December and January.
The other IRA murder in Belfast, of the drug dealer Brendan Campbell, might have been overlooked by both governments in keeping with the policy of ignoring IRA and loyalist attacks on criminal and "anti-social" elements within their communities.
It is suspected that members of the north Armagh IRA could be responsible for murdering Kevin Conway, whose body was recovered on Thursday.
Mr Conway was involved in smuggling contraband goods and had criminal connections in both the Catholic and Protestant communities. He had run foul of the north Armagh IRA before and, according to local sources, he had fallen out with local IRA figures over a smuggling deal. It is suspected they shot him and dumped his body in the mainly loyalist village of Aghalee to try and switch the blame for his murder to loyalists.
This murder, if it proves to be the work of the IRA, comes at a highly sensitive point and could have serious repercussions for the Adams leadership. The north Armagh brigade of the IRA was responsible for shooting dead the two RUC constables on June 16th last year, a month before the organisation called its second ceasefire.
There were strong suspicions at the time that the north Armagh brigade, which contains some very extreme figures motivated by sectarian hatreds, may have killed the two constables to undermine the moves towards the latest ceasefire. It is being mooted that this brigade is again trying to subvert the peace process.
There are, still, some positive signs that the process can be saved. There is still very strong support for Mr Adams among the nationalist voters in the North, as shown by the party's heavy poll in a local government by-election in Tyrone last month.
It is also still expected that Mr Adams will be allowed to attend the St Patrick's Day function at the White House from which he was excluded last year. The attendant publicity will be a boost for his case and he may well be able to sweep away the 32-County group's political challenges on a tide of popular opinion.
The likely impact of a successful US visit on another IRA convention, however, is less certain.