SERIOUS divisions in the Ulster Unionist Party at Westminster could help the British Prime Minister survive to the general election date of his choice.
The potential lifeline for Mr Major emerged last night as party sources confirmed that Mr David Trimble, the party leader, and Mr John Taylor, his deputy, had been isolated over a key Commons vote last month.
The Irish Times has learned that a majority of the UUP's nine MPs rejected Mr Trimble's advice and refused to vote against Mr Major's government in the crunch Commons vote on fisheries policy just before the Christmas recess. The decision was taken at an acrimonious meeting of the parliamentary party in Mr Trimble's room at the House of Commons less than an hour before the vote.
The government survived an opposition attack with a majority of 11, amid claims that it had "cheated" by duplicating pairing arrangements for absent Tories with both Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
UUP strategists fear the split could seriously damage Mr Trimble's attempts to extract concessions from Mr Major during the final months of his government and undermine his dealings with Mr Tony Blair in anticipation of a Labour victory at the general election, which will take place by May 1st at the latest.
It is acknowledged by both sides that a number of the party's MPs, probably a majority, are currently against supporting any attempt, by Mr Blair to force an early election by way of a no confidence vote against the government.
Several MPs last night confirmed the view that they had won important concessions on fishing quotas and the handling of the BSE crisis, were happy with Mr Major's approach to the peace process, and could see no party advantage in triggering an early election which might result in a large majority for Labour.
Sources close to Mr Trimble sought to play down the split, pointing to his assertion that he would not act "capriciously" in relation to Mr Major's precarious parliamentary position and that he would judge each Commons vote "on the merits of the issue".
Confirming that he and Mr Taylor had been isolated over the fisheries vote, the sources said this was partly the result of conflicting advice from the North's fishing industry and insisted the leadership was happy with the outcome.
However, Mr Trimble and Mr Taylor can only be concerned that a huge question mark has been raised over their ability to deliver the Ulster Unionist bloc and on how that might affect their dealings with both major parties in the run up to the election.
One senior MP said last night: "That's the significant thing. The joint leadership has lost the confidence of the other seven. It means they can't deliver, even after the election. There's no point them promising to do anything unless they've cleared it with the other seven."
The row has brought to the surface tensions and rivalries inside the parliamentary party which have continued since Mr Trimble defeated four of his fellow MPs in the 1995 leadership contest.