Disease outbreaks pose new risks to victims of Pakistan's worst floods in decades, aid agencies said today, potentially hindering already complicated relief efforts.
The floods, triggered by torrential monsoon downpours, have engulfed Pakistan's Indus river basin, killing more than 1,600 people, forcing two million from their homes and disrupting the lives of about 14 million people, or 8 percent of the population.
Although waters have receded in some areas, fresh downpours could bring more destruction, and a health crisis would tax aid agencies already facing huge logistical challenges.
The United Nations is increasingly worried about water-borne diseases. There have been 36,000 suspected cases of potentially fatal acute watery diarrhoea reported so far.
"This is a growing concern. Therefore we are responding with all kinds of preventative as well as curative medication... for outbreaks," said Maurizio Giuliano, the UN humanitarian operation spokesman said.
Floods have roared down from the northwest to the Punjab agricultural heartland to southern Sindh province.
The United Nations appealed for $459 million in emergency aid and warned of a wave of deaths if help did not arrive soon.
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon will visit Pakistan tomorrow to discuss the flood crisis with Pakistani leaders, a foreign ministry spokesman said.
Increasing desperation could lead to social unrest and pressure on a government already on the defensive after being criticised for its perceived lacklustre response, unlike the powerful military which swung into action.
"Children are dying now as we speak because of lack of access to clean drinking water," said Pascal Cuttat, International Committee of the Red Cross Head of Delegation in Islamabad.
Villages have been swallowed up. Bridges have collapsed. Some people only have a patch of land to stand on. All they see is water all around. It will get worse if the rains return.
Scattered showers are expected in the north today and the south will likely be dry, said the official weather department.
The International Monetary Fund has warned of major economic harm and the finance ministry said the country would miss this year's 4.5 per cent gross domestic product growth target though it was not clear by how much.
World Bank president Robert Zoellick said on a visit to Latvia that the floods were likely to have destroyed crops worth around $1 billion. "All of us will have to pitch in to help," he told a news conference.
Wheat, cotton and sugar crops have all suffered damage. Agriculture is a mainstay of the economy.
"On the downside, crops could have suffered damage and food inflation will soar. There may be severe shortages too and riots could well break out," said independent economist Meekal Ahmed. He predicted the fiscal deficit would come under strain and amount to about 8 per cent of GDP - twice this year's target.
Cholera would create another major crisis.
"Acute watery diarrhoea is on the rise but we have limited access to some of the areas. The access is hampering our efforts to reach and attend to these cases," said Dr Irshad Sheikh, regional adviser for emergency preparation and humanitarian access for the World Health Organisation.
"You don't have access to labs in those areas so cannot confirm if it is actually cholera." President Asif Ali Zardari has just started what appears to be damage control by visiting flood victims after drawing heavy criticism for leaving for meetings with European leaders as the disaster unfolded, and not cutting his trip short.
Mr Zardari said he had worked to secure international aid for the flood victims during his trip.
Despite the state's increasing unpopularity after its handling of the floods, analysts rule out a military grab for power, or the government's downfall.
"Disasters such as this one, which largely affect the poor and defenceless, tend to be forgotten soon by the wealthy classes, and the downtrodden classes are rarely the ones that lead unrest," said Najam Sethi, editor of Friday Times.
Spontaneous protests are not common but political parties can whip up emotions and bring large numbers to the streets.
Aid groups say it's still to early to even think about recovery. Giuliano said the floods had affected about one third of Pakistan. "It doesn't mean it's under water. It's a huge area. It's an area bigger than some European countries," he said.
Reuters