The Department of Health has argued for months against liberalisation of the licensing trade, maintaining that the more off-licences and pubs there are, the greater the under-age drinking problem will be.
Dozens of submissions from individuals to the Commission on Liquor Licensing over the past few months have made the same point.
The argument was seized on by the licensed trade, eager to portray that its opposition to allowing more off-licences was based on social responsibility rather than on protection of members' interests and profits.
But, despite the industry's best efforts, the commission has come out in favour of liberalisation of the off-licence trade.
However, in recognition of genuine concerns over teenage drinking, the commission's recommendations for liberalisation of the off-licence trade are accompanied by detailed recommendations on combating under-age drinking.
The new voluntary age cards should be made more widely available, the report re commends.
The Department of Education should set up new programmes to educate parents on the dangers of under-age drinking and put alcohol awareness into the school curriculum. The Department of Health should run a new task force to advise on best practice in alcohol harm-prevention measures.
The Commission on Liquor Licensing was established last November in response to growing pressure for liberalisation of the pub and off-licence trade. The Competition Authority had issued a robustly-argued report in favour of deregulation. The High Court had ruled that the Government had no right to limit the number of taxis. And, if this applied to taxis, why not to sellers of alcohol?
Meanwhile, the OECD was preparing a report, now published, calling for Government action to deregulate a number of sectors, including the drinks trade.
On the other hand, there was strong opposition to deregulation from the licensed trade. The pub and off-licence owners were enthusiastically supported by some Fianna Fail backbenchers and, most significantly, by Independent TD Mr Jackie Healy-Rae, whose vote is relied on by the Government. The Department of Health put forward public health arguments against deregulation. In the light of this, there was no great expectation of rapid change.
There were initial suspicions that the commission was an exercise in procrastination. But, at the behest of the Minister for Justice, Mr O'Donoghue, the commission has produced an interim report on off-licences within six months, and its proposals will displease the industry.
The restriction on numbers is to be removed. It will no longer be necessary to "extinguish" an existing licence in order to get a new one.
Within the commission, representatives of the industry argued for compensation for holders of licences which would lose value as a result of changes, just as taxi industry representatives did. However, the commission recommended no such measure.
The report gives scope for major deregulation, but the devil will be in the detail.
Mr O'Donoghue has begun work on detailed legislation giving effect to the report's recommendations. While the report could form the basis of major deregulation, it also gives scope for restriction of numbers of new entrants, if that is what is required. The Minister, for example, can set a "meaningful fee" for those who obtain licences.
There will be conditions concerning the suitability and size of premises and a requirement that those working in the premises have suitable experience and training. Planning requirements may be simple, or they may be cumbersome.
In other words, while the trade will certainly be liberalised, it remains to be seen just how many barriers to entry are lifted.
Government sources said yesterday that they believe Mr O'Donoghue will go for substantial deregulation. When he will do so is another question. Government sources say he will move quickly, but the preparation of legislation takes time, and it would be unlikely to appear until towards the end of this year at the earliest.