Despite his record popularity Jospin declines to celebrate

The French Prime Minister, Mr Lionel Jospin, gave strict orders to his staff

The French Prime Minister, Mr Lionel Jospin, gave strict orders to his staff. No one is to celebrate today's first anniversary of the election victory that brought the French left back to power.

Yet, if Mr Jospin was so inclined, the country would have reason to celebrate. Figures released last week show that industrial production has grown 8 per cent in the past year, thanks to high exports and a rise in domestic consumption. At the same time, unemployment is beginning to fall, and Mr Jospin - once considered a lacklustre has-been - achieved the highest popularity rating after a year in office of any French prime minister.

An opinion poll shows that 80 per cent of French people believe Mr Jospin is determined, 75 per cent think he is faithful to his convictions, and 74 per cent called him brave.

Other adjectives used by more than 60 per cent of those questioned were open, competent, modest and close to people. Surprisingly, centre-right supporters rated Mr Jospin almost as highly as his fellow socialists.

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A year ago, commentators accused Mr Jospin of failing to modernise his party as Mr Tony Blair did to British Labour. That has changed now. "He is following Blair's example without saying so - even if he will never go so far as Tony Blair has," Prof Pascal Perrineau, the director of the CEVIPOF political studies centre says. "The French left is modernising itself cautiously.

"For example on the euro, the momentum was unstoppable, so Mr Jospin joined in. He has partially privatised France Telecom and the banking sector. He has proved he is not old-fashioned. And on immigration and security, his government has dropped the demagoguery and uses firm language."

One of Mr Jospin's most important achievements has been to transform the style of French government from strict authoritarianism to a consultative process. In addition to weekly cabinet meetings, he holds twice-monthly working lunches with all of his ministers. By making important announcements in the National Assembly and involving it more in decision-making, he has also restored parliament's prestige.

French politics had been adrift since the late 1980s, Mr Perrineau says. "Jospin was able to break with the practices of that period. The French were exasperated by the lack of renewal. He succeeded, where Mitterrand failed, in bringing new blood in - people like Francois Hollande [Secretary General of the Socialist Party], Martine Aubry [Minister for Employment] and Elisabeth Guigou [Minister for Justice]. Lionel Jospin understood that the French wanted a new generation, and more women in politics. That is one element of his popularity."

Mr Jospin shunned the monarchical style of the late President Mitterrand and the brittle manner of his predecessor, the deeply unpopular Gaullist, Mr Alain Juppe.

"Jospin is the antiJuppe," Mr Perrineau says. "He knows how to listen and encourages diversity. His style is much more in sync with what the French want."

At a time when the old left - personified by the former Socialist foreign minister, Mr Roland Dumas - is swamped in financial scandal and the Gaullists are in equally deep trouble with investigations of corruption at Paris City Hall, Mr Jospin is known to be honest.

Mr Jospin also has the advantage of governing when the French right is at its nadir. The Gaullist Rally for the Republic (RPR), President Jacques Chirac's party, and the Union for French Democracy (UDF) are trying to patch together a new group called Alliance. But they disagree on their attitude towards the extreme right National Front, on the structure of their partnership and who should be its leaders.

"There are too many crocodiles in the right's creek," Mr Perrineau says. "On the left, Mr Jospin is the uncontested leader." If the French economy continues to improve, he stands an excellent chance of winning the next presidential election in 2002.

But the primary concern of the French electorate is unemployment, and if the figures stagnate, the public weariness that has undermined every French government for the past two decades could set in.

Two mainly symbolic reforms enacted by Mr Jospin - the 35hour working week and the creation of 350,000 public sector jobs for young people - are often cited as the reason for his popularity. Yet the 35-hour week will not take effect until July 2000, and only a few tens of thousands of young people have been hired so far. The important thing is the perception that Mr Jospin is trying to do something to create new jobs.

Mr Jospin and his team "have given birth to hope, something that we thought was impossible," an editorial in Liberation marking the first anniversary said. But the longing for greater equality, less poverty and less violence in poor suburbs has not been fulfilled yet. For that reason, Liberation concluded, Mr Jospin could be entering a dangerous period.