EDUCATION ANALYSIS: As the political hacks tapped the term "Dead Man Walking" into their laptops, the Minister for Education, Mr Dempsey, was doing his best to accentuate the positive on a Sunday morning in Merrion Street, writes Sean Flynn, Education Editor
People, he said, will probably write dreadful things today about his supposed political reversal - but he had no problem with that. He remained in a position where he has a capacity to change things and to make a difference.
It was a defiant message from a politician quite unlike any this reporter has encountered. Yes, his political judgement can desert him at times. But Noel Dempsey remains one of the most interesting and challenging figures in politics.
He is also, for a seasoned politician, remarkably sincere. He sees a problem and wants to address it without necessarily doing backroom deals or pulling strokes.
He is an old-fashioned political figure; he just wants to do the right thing.
It is important in evaluating the package announced yesterday to acknowledge that on taking office Mr Dempsey was under no great political or media pressure to do anything about educational disadvantage. There was already a well-worn formula for dealing with the problem; a review committee here, a task force there, one-off initiatives in disadvantaged areas - but no structural reform and no risky business.
To his credit, Mr Dempsey decided to address the issue head on. He needed more money to widen access. He raised questions about the €220 million that the Government gives the colleges in lieu of fees. He posed an awkward question - wasn't this just a subsidy for the middle class?
His resolve to change things was stiffened when this newspaper revealed how nine of the top 10 feeder schools for UCD were fee-paying. For Mr Dempsey, this was evidence of the two-tier nature of education in this State. The well-off were subsidised to move further up the social ladder; the poor were allowed to fall away.
In all of this, Mr Dempsey has been hugely influenced by his own experiences. His critics would say prejudices. He is one of just two from a family of 12 who made it to college. He is passionately of the view that you should not have to be from the leafy and affluent suburbs of south Dublin to get on in life. When Mr Dempsey established his review of third-level funding last autumn, he was careful not to say he was in favour of bringing back fees.
The review might propose that, but he was not going to pre-empt its proposals. The review, when it came, created some practical difficulties. Economic models showed a €100,000 income threshold for fees would generate just €15 million in revenue.
Despite this setback, Mr Dempsey's tone on the issue hardened considerably in the past fortnight.
A major turning point came ten days ago when he told a meeting of Fianna Fáil backbenchers that he would be tabling a proposal to bring back fees to the Cabinet.
The now simmering controversy was racheted up again when The Irish Times revealed a week ago that fees of up €8,000 were planned. Cue the Minister for Justice, Mr McDowell, cutting up rough on Questions and Answers. Through it all, Mr Dempsey could be accused of making two serious political misjudgements. Firstly, he appeared to pre-empt the outcome of his own review by pushing for a return of fees. Secondly, he failed to smooth the ground with the PDs - and some in his own party - whose pressure would eventually put him on the back foot.
The key question is this: Did Mr Dempsey really believe he could actually achieve the return of fees given the level of opposition from the PDs and from within Fianna Fáil?
Or did he believe that an outcome like we have seen yesterday - more funding for disadvantage schemes - was always more likely?
Mr Dempsey says he did not give up the fight on fees until Saturday morning at a meeting with the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, the Tánaiste, Ms Harney, and the Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, in Drumcondra. But well-placed sources insist his bottom line was never about fees - it was about more money to help widen access. And he has secured this.
It is easy to pick holes in the package. More money is being invested in a higher education grant scheme which on the Minister's own admission desperately needs reform. It is abundantly clear how the current system favours the self-employed and farmers at the expense of the PAYE sector. Mr Dempsey had hoped to reform the system by handing control of it over to the Department of Social, Community and Family Affairs. But his efforts have been rebuffed.
It is also clear the package is another band-aid applied to the educational disadvantage problem. In itself, it will do little to change a situation where, for example, less than 65 per cent of male students on Dublin's northside bother to take the Leaving Cert - let alone go on to third-level education.
For all that, Mr Dempsey can say with some justification that half a loaf is better than no bread. The €42 million package is no panacea but it should have a real impact in working-class communities in Dublin and elsewhere.
He can also take credit for one other considerable achievement. He has taken the issue of educational disadvantage out of the shadows and pushed it to the top of the political agenda. That, in itself, is a revolution of sorts.