HAVANA LETTER: Strict travel controls are about to be lifted and Cubans will be able to go abroad without the need for permission, writes John Moran.
THE WINDS of change are blowing across Cuba. A series of measures recently introduced by Raul Castro has relaxed a number of important economic and social controls that defined the regime of his brother, Fidel, and may have opened the door for a potential shift towards the flexible, mixed-economy model of Chinese communism.
The most dramatic of Raul's new measures was revealed over the weekend. Word spread like wildfire in downtown Havana that the country's strict travel controls were about to be lifted and that Cubans could go abroad without permission from the authorities - something for which Cubans have long yearned. This is expected to be announced in the next few days or so and everyone you meet, from taxi drivers to hotel receptionists and waiters, have responded with expressions ranging from delight to disbelief.
Raul's other initiatives mean that Cubans are now free to buy computers and mobile phones, to stay in tourist hotels, to run farms other than as part of collectives, to secure ownership rights for retirees to homes so they may be passed on to their children, and that workers are to be paid above the standard rate, according to performance.
While these moves have been welcomed enthusiastically by ordinary Cubans - and have caused considerable expectation of further relaxation of rigid economic and social regulations - it is unclear to what extent they have the support of an ailing Fidel Castro.
Raul's relaxation of control of collective farms now allows a measure of private enterprise in food production and has been seen as an attempt to resolve the communist country's chronic food-supply shortages which have resulted in Cuba being forced to import some 80 per cent of its food requirements.
Mobile phones can now be seen on the streets, in restaurants and in bars.
Taxi drivers have also been enthusiastic buyers. At about €100 each, however, the phones will be beyond the reach of most Cubans, whose take-home pay is between €15 and €20 a month. Only those who work in tourism, are in receipt of remittances from family members in the US or those whose parents work at the higher levels of government will be able to afford them. As of course will practitioners of the world's oldest profession.
Mobile phone use will mean that significant numbers of Cubans can now make and receive calls from home and abroad. This opens up a new source of information beyond the usual staples of state radio, television, newspapers and magazines.
The ban on Cubans staying in tourist hotels has been long resented as discrimination, but again the low average wage will mean few will be able to bear the cost of a room at between 40 and 250 Cuban convertible pesos (€27.50 and €172) a night. You can get a room in a tourist hotel for as little as €15 a night, but this can only be done on the internet - to which access is strictly controlled.
The fact that earnings will not allow most Cubans access to these goods and services may be eased to some extent by the lifting of standard rates of pay, to allow more diligent employees to be rewarded. This measure should also go some way to boosting performance - and boosting a sluggish economy.
There is also some hope that Raul's bolder approach may find some positive response in Washington. In particular, it is hoped that it may bring some movement towards the lifting of the, until now, crippling US embargo which has been in place for almost half a century. Were Barack Obama to take the US presidency, he could prove an appropriate agent of change. Mr Obama has already promised to lift the US restriction that allows Cubans to return home just once every three years.
The blockade is already losing some of its bite because of cheap oil from Venezuela and a huge increase in trade with the burgeoning economic superpower, China. New shops are opening in Havana's high street, Obispo, and many of the goods on sale are from China. Tourism is also a vital source of income and it is funding the work of restoring the fine colonial houses along the seafront Malecón.
Raul is a long-time Sinophile. He is close to China's leaders and has visited the country. China's president, Hu Jintao, visited Cuba in 2004 on one of his first trips after his appointment, during which he made trade deals worth $100 billion (€63.6 billion) to the Cuban economy.
Havana's new Yutong bus fleet offers one of the more visible pieces of evidence of the Chinese connection. The Yutong have replaced the lumbering humpbacked giants, called "camels", the last of which was due to go out of service last night. Cuba also has a significant population of Chinese origin and I'm told that Havana's run-down Chinatown is due for a much-needed facelift.
With such close connections, it is possible that Raul could be moving towards the Chinese economic model, which does not allow its communist credo to overly interfere with its business interests. At the same time, US business interests have also been beating a path to Havana since Raul took over from Fidel, not wanting to lose out if change is in the air.
While Raul Castro's changes may appear modest, they are clearly a departure from Fidel's old orthodoxy, and they also seem to suggest at least a partial opening up of the economy and of society. If the winds of change blowing in Cuba are managed delicately by Raul and whoever becomes US president, one of the warmest peoples in the world will have even more reason to celebrate.
Whatever winds blow in from the political front, they won't stop the infectious beat of the bands in Old Havana's bustling bars and restaurants. And with travel controls now lifted, if you're lucky, some of these bands might now be coming to a place near you.